Investment Insights Podcast: Harvey & Irma upend the jobs market

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 13, 2017), Tim discusses why the jobs market turned south after seven years of net job growth, and if the disappointing September report is a harbinger of a weakening economy or possibly even a recession.

Quick hits:

  • According to the Department of Labor, the U.S. lost 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first month in seven years that the labor market failed to expand.
  • One can assume Harvey and Irma had a significant – and temporary – impact on the jobs market.
  • While Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were tragic events, we don’t see them having a lasting, negative impact on the economy, which remains on very firm footing.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: A review of September markets

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Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 9, 2017), Leigh provides a quick review of September markets.

 

Quick hits:

  • In September, more clarity surrounding anticipated tax reform policies helped boost consumer and business sentiment and there is now a higher probability that corporate tax cuts and/or move to a territorial tax system will be enacted in the beginning of 2018.
  • Overall macroeconomic data leans positive and we expect the positive market momentum we have seen so far in 2017 will carry through to the end of the year.
  • We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term but recognize we are in the later innings of the bull market.

Listen_Icon  Listen to the audio recording.

Read_Icon  Read the full October Market and Economic Outlook.

 

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

 

No apologies needed – The Diversification Apology Index

Rosenberger 150 x 150Andrew Rosenberger, CFA, Senior Investment Manager

Being truly diversified means always having to apologize for something.  Diversification, like investing in general, is oftentimes easier said than done.  We can theorize about 30 year time horizons; but emotions, herd mentality, individual circumstances, and a largely unpredictable future make practice far more difficult than theory.  For example, prior to the Financial Crisis when international stocks were ripping higher, investors questioned why more of their equity exposure wasn’t allocated toward international and emerging market stocks.  Last year, clients questioned why any of their equity exposure was allocated toward international companies.  As diversified asset allocators, we are constantly facing something in our portfolios which is lagging the broader markets.

With that said, 2017 certainly “feels” like it is shaping up to be a good year for diversified investors.  Most asset classes are up on the year with select ones, like international equities, handily outperforming the S&P 500.  But why does this year “feel” different than those in the past?  To answer that, let me introduce the “Diversification Apology Index.”

Diversification Apology Index 2

Source: Brinker Capital, FactSet, Lipper: 1/1/05 to 8/31/17

To explain further, let me first mention that not everything is performing well this year.  Commodities are slightly negative year-to-date, while REITs cling to only fractionally positive returns.  Yet, when you look at most investors’ portfolios, commodities and REITs make up only a minor portion of their overall asset allocation.  International equities, on the other hand, tend to represent a much larger investable universe and thus tend to make up a more significant portion of a diversified asset allocation.  To demonstrate this idea, we complied all U.S. open-end mutual funds and grouped them into broad asset classes based on their Lipper classifications.  With the entire mutual fund universe in hand, we then asset weighted each fund according to its corresponding asset class.  In short, we created a proxy for the ‘market portfolio.’  While we don’t believe this represents the average investors’ asset allocation per-se, it does give us some indication on relative positioning.  For example, we can see that the assets under management (AUM) for the international and global equity mutual funds is nearly twice as large as that of commodities, natural resources and MLPs.  Similarly, REITs make up only 3 percent of the total mutual fund AUM.  Although investors will differ based on their risk tolerance, objectives, biases, and investment philosophy, the aggregate mutual fund AUM provides some insight as to where the investors tend to allocate their investable capital.

US Mutual Fund Universe by Asset Class 2

Source: Brinker Capital, FactSet, Lipper: as of 6/30/17

With an idea relative asset class weightings, we can then compare recent performance of each of these asset classes to how a very traditional 60 percent S&P 500, 40 percent Barclays Aggregate portfolio would perform.  When asset classes with relatively small weights underperform, investors tend not to take all that much notice.  Hence, there is little to ‘apologize’ for.  However, when more meaningfully weighted asset classes underperform, the results stand out like a sore thumb.

Therein lies the basic methodology for the “Diversification Apology Index”.  After staying in an elevated range since 2011, we now see the benefits of diversification more similar to that of before the Financial Crisis.  Although we shouldn’t interpret this gauge as having any predictive power, it does bring hope that conversations with investors will be more focused on goals and how to meet objectives rather than why one may not be keeping up with the S&P 500.  Ultimately though, we should take comfort in knowing that it’s a good thing when select asset classes underperform, as it means that we are truly benefiting from a diversified portfolio.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

 

 

Investment Insights Podcast: Headed for home

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 29, 2017), Tim discusses how we at Brinker Capital do not currently see a reason to change our thinking on market history and fundamentals as we head into October.

Quick hits:

  • We have been overweight risk assets and overweight U.S. equities.
  • So far, as we move into the end of Q3, the expected pattern of equity market strength is holding, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% in the quarter.
  • We see many more positives than negatives when we consider the underlying fundamentals for the market and the economy.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Shaping up to be a pretty good year for diversified asset allocators with an active management bias

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Andrew Rosenberger, CFA, Senior Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 22, 2017), Andy discusses the performance of asset allocators with an active management bias thus far in 2017.

 

Quick hits:

  • 58% of primary shareclass mutual funds in the Lipper Large Growth & Value and Small Growth & Value style boxes have outperformed their passive benchmarks.
  • Upwards of 63% of fixed income managers are outperforming the Barclays Aggregate while 55% of international managers are outperforming the MSCI EAFE.
  • The majority of active managers are outperforming and in emerging markets, where most are not, the asset class is up 31% on the year.

For Andy’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: When the macro clouds clear

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 15, 2017), Tim discusses how Brinker Capital’s focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals.

Quick hits:

  • Despite the strong fundamentals in early September, the market was languishing as investors focused on current political and geo-political events.
  • We will of course continue to monitor political and geo-political events, but our focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals; those factors that more than any other drive stock prices over the long-term.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: A review of August markets

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Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 8, 2017), Leigh provides a quick review of August markets.

 

Quick hits:

  • In a historically seasonally weak month, risk assets exhibited weaker performance in August.
  • Global economies continued to stay the course on the path to recovery with both consumer and business confidence and macroeconomic data remaining positive.
  • We expect that the upcoming actions in Washington may serve as a catalyst for a pickup in volatility, which has been notably absent year to date.
  • However, more volatile periods can often lead to attractive market opportunities.

Listen_Icon  Listen to the audio recording.

Read_Icon  Read the full September Market and Economic Outlook.

market outlook

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

 

Follow the earnings, my friend

Wilson-150-x-150Thomas K.R. Wilson, CFA, external Chief Investment Officer, Wealth Advisory

In meeting with clients this summer, the most frequently asked question was, “Why does the stock market keep going up?” Of course, there are variations of this question which range from “How does the market go up with all the distraction in the U.S. government,” to “This bull market is very long, how can it continue?”

On the surface, it does seem odd that the market continues to move higher. There have been a lot of ‘interesting’ comments coming from the White House, which in a different time may have caused the equity market to decline or at least pause. The average economic expansion since 1900 lasted 47 months, however, the one we are currently in has lasted 98 months, thus far. The economic expansion has contributed to a bull market, which began in March 2009, that is now up close to 260%! In addition, there are a litany of geopolitical issues ranging from riots in Venezuela, an expanding Chinese navy, and North Korean missile tests, which combined are pushing the rise of populism in Europe and the constant Middle East conflict to the backburner. Besides, whatever happened to the old cliché of sell in May and go away? For the year, the S&P 500 is up just over 11%, which includes more than 1.5% appreciation since June 1.

There are a variety of reasons why the U.S. equity market is up, but arguable the most important factor is the earnings of U.S. companies. Earnings have been good this year, very good. And, expectations for earnings for the remainder of the year and into 2018 are solid. This comes on the heels of flat to down earnings from 2014 through the first half of 2016. Furthermore, once earnings are finalized for the second quarter, it looks like operating margins achieved their highest level of any quarter in the last decade!                                                               Follow the earnings my friend

James Carville, campaign strategist for President Bill Clinton, is credited with the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.” As we think about the gains in U.S. equities this year, perhaps a variation of this phrase, “Follow the earnings, my friend” is more appropriate.

For 30 years, Brinker Capital has served financial advisors and their clients by providing the highest quality investment manager due diligence, asset allocation, portfolio construction and client communication services. Brinker Capital Wealth Advisory works with business owners, individual investors and institutions with assets of at least $2 million. To learn more about the services available through Brinker Capital Wealth Advisor, click here.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Source:  JP Morgan

Investment Insights Podcast: September could be a grueling month in Washington

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Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Vice President, Brinker Capital

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 29, 2017), Amy discusses how the agenda in Washington, during the month of September, will be grueling.

Quick hits:

  • Lawmakers must deal with raising the debt ceiling, government funding to avoid a shutdown, and a new budget that will provide a reconciliation vehicle so that tax reform can pass with a simple majority vote.
  • We faced a similar situation in September 2013 when the government did shut down for sixteen days.
  • We believe that the Administration serves as both a positive tailwind for the economy and markets, as well as a significant risk.

For Amy’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: US Equities & Constitutional Crises

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 23, 2017), Tim examines how the stock market fared during recent Constitutional crises

Quick hits:

  • During that tumultuous Watergate Period, the S&P 500 sold off approximately 30%, easily clearing the Bear Market threshold of a 20% correction.
  • During the 13 months of The Whitewater / Monica Lewinsky Period, the S&P 500 was up approximately 20%, a far better showing than its return during The Watergate Period.
  • While the two periods had much in common politically, why were they so dissimilar when it came to stock market returns?

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.