Stuart P. Quint, CFA, Senior Investment Manager & International Strategist
On this week’s podcast (recorded May 16, 2016), Stuart discusses what the President of Brazil’s impeachment means for the near-term future of the country. If you missed Stuart’s initial framework around Brazil, you can catch up here first.
As discussed, why talk about Brazil?
- It’s the largest economy in Latin America.
- It’s the eighth largest economy in the world.
- For the last several years, it’s been a large drag on emerging market economic growth.
- There is potential to have a positive impact with the recent shock to the political system.
What does Rousseff’s impeachment announcement entail?
- Brazilian senate approved in large majority to impeach President Dilma Rousseff and replace with Vice President Michel Temer.
- General elections to take place in 2018, and with the Olympics in Rio a few months away, the window for the government to pass reforms is short.
- Rousseff is the third president to be impeached since 1992.
- Key test will be whether such enthusiasm for impeaching Rousseff will apply to tough votes on fiscal reform needed to restore economic confidence in Brazil.
What’s the upside with Temer?
- Michel Temer has already named a cabinet that includes former president of the Central Bank of Brazil, Henirque Meirelles
- Meirelles presided over the strong Brazilian economy during the two terms of former President Lula prior to Rousseff taking office.
- The government deficit lies at the heart of what ails Brazil and might improve under the right circumstances.
How does the government begin to reign in the deficit?
- Debt to GDP is growing 10% a year.
- The government, simply put, must raise revenues and cut expenditures; but, this is easier said than done.
- Higher taxes are troublesome and could stunt the already weak economy.
- One tax likely to be reintroduced is a basis point tax on financial transactions, which should have a high success rate in collecting revenues, but it also could dampen economic activity.
- Expenditures could be difficult to reduce given legal restrictions and the still-fragile political situation.
- Fiscal expenditures offer the potential to improve the fiscal situation, but it is also the most susceptible to politics.
Where does Brazil stand now?
- Given that Temer has an approval rating just barely above that of Rousseff¹, it is unclear whether he has enough political capital to push through needed reforms.
- The ongoing corruption investigations known as Carwash potentially affects politicians of all stripes.
- Opposing interests in Congress might find it in their own self-interest to “bite the bullet” on passing just enough reforms to stabilize the country in time for new elections in 2018.
- In short, while the economic obstacles are challenging, it is possible to see improvement in the fiscal balances.
Please click here to listen to the full recording.
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, a Registered Investment Advisor.