Investment Insights Podcast: September could be a grueling month in Washington

magnotta_headshot_2016

Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Vice President, Brinker Capital

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 29, 2017), Amy discusses how the agenda in Washington, during the month of September, will be grueling.

Quick hits:

  • Lawmakers must deal with raising the debt ceiling, government funding to avoid a shutdown, and a new budget that will provide a reconciliation vehicle so that tax reform can pass with a simple majority vote.
  • We faced a similar situation in September 2013 when the government did shut down for sixteen days.
  • We believe that the Administration serves as both a positive tailwind for the economy and markets, as well as a significant risk.

For Amy’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

investment podcast (8)

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

February 2017 market and economic review and outlook

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager

Markets were off to a good start in 2017 as risk assets posted modest gains for the month. After taking a brief pause from the post-election fourth quarter rally, risk assets continued to climb at a more tempered pace, with returns driven more by healthy fundamentals than post-election hype. Economic data leaned positive and a solid earnings reporting season helped bolster consumer confidence. Inflation risk continued to increase with rising wages and stabilization of commodity prices and will likely continue to rise as the new political administration begins implementing its pro-growth policies.

shutterstock_313473086 (3)

The S&P 500 was up 1.9% for the month. Cyclicals outperformed more defensive sectors with both materials and information technology up over 4%. Energy was down -3.6%, a reversal from the sector’s strong returns in 2016. Telecom was down -2.5% as income-focused stocks continue to experience pressure from the rise in interest rates. Growth outperformed value and mid cap led small and large cap equities.

International equities were up 3.6% in January. Economic data in the European Union pointed to signs of a modest recovery as GDP growth rose and unemployment fell. Progress, however, remains uneven amongst countries, creating headwinds for the European Central Bank to implement future effective monetary policy. Likewise Japan saw beginning signs of an economic recovery but no indication was given that the Bank of Japan is ready to start tapering it’s accommodate monetary policy. Emerging markets were up 5.5%, outperforming developed international markets. After experiencing a drawdown in the fourth quarter last year, the asset class rallied due in part to stabilization of commodity prices.

Fixed income was slightly positive with the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index up 0.2% and Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond up 0.7%. The 10 year Treasury yield ended at 2.46%, relatively unchanged from the start of the month, but down from the 2.59% peak in mid-December of last year. High yield was the best performing sector, up 1.5%, as spreads slightly contracted. Going forward we expect fixed income returns to remain muted as the Fed continues with its interest normalization efforts.

The Brinker Capital investment team remains positive on risk assets over the intermediate term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle. While our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives and recession is not our base case, especially considering the potential of reflationary policies from the new administration, the risks must not be ignored:

  • Reflationary fiscal policies: With the new administration and an all‐Republican government, we expect fiscal policy expansion in 2017, including tax cuts, repatriation of foreign sourced profits, increased infrastructure and defense spending, and a more benign regulatory environment.
  • Global growth improving: U.S. economic growth is ticking higher and there are signs growth outside of the U.S., in both developed and emerging markets, are improving.
  • Global monetary policy remains accommodative: The Federal Reserve is taking a careful approach to policy normalization. ECB and Bank of Japan balance sheets expanded in 2016 and central banks remain supportive of growth.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Administration unknowns: While the upcoming administration’s policies are currently being viewed favorably, uncertainties remain. The market may be too optimistic that all of the pro‐growth policies anticipated will come to fruition. We are unsure how Trump’s trade policies will develop, and there is the possibility for geopolitical missteps.
  • Risk of policy mistake: The Federal Reserve has begun to slowly normalize monetary policy, but the future path of rates is still unclear. Should inflation move significantly higher, there is also the risk that the Fed falls behind the curve. The ECB and the Bank of Japan could also disappoint market participants, bringing the credibility of central banks into question.

The technical backdrop of the market is favorable, credit conditions are supportive, and we have started to see some acceleration in economic growth. So far Trump’s policies are being seen as pro‐growth, and investor confidence has improved. We expect higher
volatility to continue as we digest the onset of the Trump administration and the actions of central banks, but our view on risk assets remains positive over the intermediate term. Higher volatility can lead to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take
advantage of as active managers.

A PDF version of Amy’s commentary is available to download from the Brinker Capital Resource Center. Find it here >>

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting.

Barclays Municipal Bond Index: A market-weighted index, maintained by Barclays Capital, used to represent the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of over one year. Such index will have different level of volatility than the actual investment portfolio. S&P 500: An index consisting of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping, among other factors. The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is meant to reflect the risk/return characteristics of the large-cap universe. Companies included in the Index are selected by the S&P Index Committee, a team of analysts and economists at Standard & Poor’s. World Index Ex-U.S. includes both developed and emerging markets. Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate: A market capitalization-weighted index, maintained by Bloomberg Barclays, and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in the United States.

Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: While we feel the weight of the evidence leans positive, risks remain

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

On this podcast (recorded January 31, 2017), Amy discusses Brinker’s outlook over the short-term and intermediate-term.

  • The recent actions of President Trump have resulted in an increase in short-term political risk.
  • As we’ve seen before, new presidents typically struggle to get their footing early on in their administration and equities tend to be weaker in February as a consequence.
  • Because of the short-term impact of the negative headlines, Trump may have to spend down some of his political capital now, which could impact his ability to get his full agenda passed in the future.
  • Our view remains constructive on risk assets in the intermediate term.

Click here to listen to the full podcast.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

January 2017 market and economic review and outlook

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager

Risk assets were up for the fourth quarter to finish the year in strong positive territory. Although 2016 began with a steep double‐digit market decline, markets rallied after hitting a bottom on February 11 and credit conditions steadily improved. Trump’s surprise victory further served as a springboard for positive momentum due to anticipation of pro‐growth policy initiatives such as increases in infrastructure spending and a more benign regulatory environment. Low unemployment and positive economic growth spurred the Fed to resume its interest rate normalization policy, raising interest rates by 25 basis points on December 14. Both inflation expectations and interest rates are likely poised higher as we enter into 2017.

shutterstock_313473086 (2)

We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle. While our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives and recession is not our base case, especially considering the potential of reflationary policies from the new administration, the risks must not be ignored:

  • Reflationary fiscal policies: With the new administration and an all‐Republican government, we expect fiscal policy expansion in 2017, including tax cuts, repatriation of foreign sourced profits, increased infrastructure and defense spending, and a more benign regulatory environment.
  • Global growth improving: U.S. economic growth is ticking higher and there are signs growth outside of the U.S., in both developed and emerging markets, are improving.
  • Global monetary policy remains accommodative: The Federal Reserve is taking a careful approach to policy normalization. ECB and Bank of Japan balance sheets expanded in 2016 and central banks remain supportive of growth.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Administration unknowns: While the upcoming administration’s policies are currently being viewed favorably, uncertainties remain. The market may be too optimistic that all of the pro‐growth policies anticipated will come to fruition. We are unsure how Trump’s trade policies will develop, and there is the possibility for geopolitical missteps.
  • Risk of policy mistake: The Federal Reserve has begun to slowly normalize monetary policy, but the future path of rates is still unclear. Should inflation move significantly higher, there is also the risk that the Fed falls behind the curve. The ECB and the Bank of Japan could also disappoint market participants, bringing the credibility of central banks into question.

The technical backdrop of the market is favorable, credit conditions are supportive, and we have started to see some acceleration in economic growth. So far Trump’s policies are being seen as pro‐growth, and investor confidence has improved. We expect higher
volatility to continue as we digest the onset of the Trump administration and the actions of central banks, but our view on risk assets remains positive over the intermediate term. Higher volatility can lead to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take
advantage of as active managers.

A PDF version of Amy’s commentary is available to download from the Brinker Capital Resource Center. Find it here >>

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

December 2016 market and economic review and outlook


magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager

The dramatic market shifts in November were not for the fainthearted. Risk assets ended the month mixed with domestic assets posting strong positive returns and international assets generally negative. November began with risk assets in a steady downtrend but abruptly reversed in the aftermath of the Trump victory. Markets surged with the anticipation of Trump policy initiatives such as increased infrastructure spending, tax reform and less regulation. Expectations of increased economic growth coupled with rising commodity prices heightened fears of higher inflation and continue to fuel speculation of a Fed rate hike during the fourth quarter. As political and central bank policy continue to unfold, we expect heightened market volatility to continue. We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle.

Our macro outlook is biased in favor of the positives and recession is not our base case:

  • Reflationary fiscal policies: With the new administration and an all‐Republican government, we expect fiscal policy expansion in 2017, including tax cuts, repatriation of foreign sourced profits, and infrastructure spending, as well as a more benign regulatory environment.
  • Global monetary policy remains accommodative: The Fed’s approach to tightening monetary policy has been patient. The Bank of Japan and the ECB remain supportive, and the Bank of England may need to join in response to the Brexit vote.
  • Stable U.S. growth and tame inflation: U.S. economic growth has been modest but steady, and the reflationary policies discussed above should boost economic activity. Wage growth, a big driver of inflation, has remained in check.
  • Constructive backdrop for U.S. consumer: The U.S. consumer should continue to benefit from lower oil prices and a stronger labor market.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Risk of policy mistake: In the U.S. the subsequent path of rates is uncertain and may not be in line with market expectations, which could lead to increased volatility. Should inflation expectations move significantly higher, there is also the risk that the Fed falls behind the curve. The ECB and the Bank of Japan could also disappoint market participants, bringing the credibility of central banks into question.
  • Slower global growth: Economic growth outside the U.S. is weaker.
  • Risk of more protectionist trade policies: The new administration may impose tariffs and/or renegotiate trade agreements.

The technical backdrop of the market has improved, as have credit conditions, helped by the favorable macroeconomic environment. We have also seen some reacceleration in earnings growth. So far Trump’s policies are being seen as pro‐growth, and investor confidence has improved.

We expect higher volatility to continue as we digest the actions of central banks and the onset of the Trump administration; but our view on risk assets remains positive over the intermediate term. Higher volatility can lead to attractive pockets of opportunity we can take advantage of as active managers.

A PDF version of Amy’s commentary is available to download from the Brinker Capital Resource Center. Find it here >>

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Potential impact of the election results on the financial markets

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

On this podcast (recorded November 16, 2016), Amy reviews the potential impact of the election results on the financial markets. Here are some quick hits before you have a listen:

  • Historically, an all-Republican government, as we will have in 2017, has been the best scenario for markets.
  • While the policies of a Trump administration are still unknown at this point, from his positions as a candidate we expect more expansionary fiscal policy, which is bullish for stocks but more bearish for bonds.
  • The biggest concern of a Trump presidency is the impact on trade as he does have the ability to impose tariffs by executive action.

Click here to listen to the full podcast.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: October Market & Economic Outlook

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

On this podcast, Amy reviews third quarter market activity and the themes to monitor for the rest of the year. Here are some quick hits before you have a listen:

  • The third quarter was marked by a continuation of muted global growth with risk assets posting solid returns.
  • Expectations for the next Fed rate hike moved further out on the calendar from September to December, further fueling risk assets. Fed rhetoric may create the dynamic where “good news is bad news.”
  • U.S. economic data releases have been mixed, but lean positive. Stronger wage growth, low inflation and low unemployment levels leads us to believe that while we are likely late in the business cycle, there is still room for growth before the next recession.

Click here to listen to the full podcast. A PDF version of Amy’s commentary is available to download as well. Find it here >>

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Outlook Positive Despite Rate Hike Possibility

magnotta_headshot_2016Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 9, 2016), Amy reviews how the markets performed during August and provides an outlook to what’s ahead. Here a few quick hits before you listen:

  • August was a relatively calm month for financial markets. Large cap developed market equities eked out small gains, while emerging markets, high-yield bonds and small caps fared better.
  • U.S. economic data releases have been mixed, but lean positive. Yet, with better economic data comes the possibility of an additional Fed interest rate hike sooner rather than later.
  • While the possibility of a rate hike could adversely affect markets in the near term, it doesn’t change our positive intermediate-term outlook.
  • Risks facing the economy include the potential for a central bank policy mistake, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election, and disappointing economic growth outside of the U.S.
  • We expect higher volatility to continue as we digest the actions of global central banks, but our view on risk assets still tilts positive over the intermediate term. Increased volatility often leads to pockets of attractive opportunities.

Click here to listen to Amy’s full audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

August 2016 Monthly Market and Economic Outlook

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

On this podcast, Amy reviews July’s market activity and provides an outlook into what’s in store for August and the rest of 2016. Here are some quick hits before you have a listen:

  • Investor confidence resumed and fears of global contagion dissipated when it became evident that the negative implications of the Brexit decision would likely be contained to the UK and areas of Europe.
  • U.S. real GDP data was lackluster, but consumer spending remained strong and jobless claims low.
  • Despite the shock of the Brexit decision during the end of the second quarter, international equities finished the month in strong positive territory, outpacing domestic equities.
  • We expect a higher level of volatility as markets assess the impact of slower global growth, the actions of policymakers and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election; but our view on risk assets still tilts positive over the near term.

Click here to listen to the full podcast. A PDF version of Amy’s commentary is available to download in the Brinker Capital Resource Center. Find it here >>

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. Indices are unmanaged and an investor cannot invest directly in an index. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

The Impact of Brexit

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

An overview of highlights from our Investment Team on the impact of Brexit on markets and Brinker Capital portfolios.

Key Highlights:

  • Today is largely a retracement of last week’s market action. Over the last week, the MSCI EAFE Index was up over 7% and the Russell 3000 Index almost 2% as the market anticipated a “remain” vote. We’ve retraced that rally today, but global markets are only marginally down from levels seen a week ago.
  • Brinker Capital portfolios have generally been underweight to international markets, specifically developed international markets.
  • This vote is a political event, not an economic event. It marks the coming end of the UK’s trade agreement with the EU, but the process is one that will likely take years. What it has done immediately is increased the level of uncertainty in markets. We will likely see additional global central bank liquidity and easing in an effort to support economies and markets.
  • Emotional trading can create opportunities, so our focus over the coming weeks and months will be to identify and take advantage of these opportunities.

Brexit’s Impact on Global Economies and Markets

  • The economic and political impact on the UK is decidedly negative, but the degree of which is uncertain. The currency and equity markets will be weaker in the near term while the long-term outlook is unclear given the politics involved.
  • The negative economic impact on Europe is less, but still meaningful. From a political perspective, the departure highlights the rising risk of populism and becomes another distraction for the EU from much-needed reforms. We expect a weaker euro and European risk assets in the near term; the central bank could try to cushion some impact.
  • International markets will experience the indirect effects of lower global growth and general risk aversion.
  • We do not see it as having a significant direct impact on the U.S. economy; however, a strengthening U.S. dollar as a result will be a headwind for U.S. companies with significant international business.
  • Expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have plummeted. Today, the futures curve is predicting a zero chance of a rate hike in September (down from 31% yesterday) and a 14% chance in December (down from 50%).

How Brinker Capital is Positioned in Strategic Portfolios

  • Portfolios have been positioned with a meaningful underweight to international equity markets in favor of domestic equity markets.
  • The underweight has been concentrated in developed international markets, due to concerns over long-term structural issues in their economies that have an impact on economic growth.
  • We don’t anticipate any immediate changes to the portfolios as a result of these events as we feel we were well positioned ahead of the news, and we expect to reallocate portfolios in late July.

Overall Summary

  • We think this is an extended process that will develop over the coming months and years. Today, the market is pricing in the uncertainty, but this will be a fluid and evolving process.
  • The market selloff today has been relatively orderly and largely a retracement of the gains of the last week.
  • Our portfolios were well positioned in advance of the vote with an underweight to international markets.
  • We expect the uncertainty to result in higher levels of volatility, which creates opportunities for active management.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.