Investment Insights Podcast: September could be a grueling month in Washington

magnotta_headshot_2016

Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Vice President, Brinker Capital

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 29, 2017), Amy discusses how the agenda in Washington, during the month of September, will be grueling.

Quick hits:

  • Lawmakers must deal with raising the debt ceiling, government funding to avoid a shutdown, and a new budget that will provide a reconciliation vehicle so that tax reform can pass with a simple majority vote.
  • We faced a similar situation in September 2013 when the government did shut down for sixteen days.
  • We believe that the Administration serves as both a positive tailwind for the economy and markets, as well as a significant risk.

For Amy’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Money Missteps to Avoid in Retirement

frank_randallFrank Randall, AIF®, Regional Director, Retirement Plan Services

 “Good decisions come from experience,

and experience comes from bad decisions.”

By the time you feel ready enough to retire, you have likely had your fair share of blunders along the way. Now seasoned with experience, the realization that mistakes are inevitable, and having the ability to recover can make the difference between success and failure.

Here are some of the most common missteps in retirement:

  • Focusing on the wrong factors. Many people decide to retire when they reach a certain age, job fluctuations or business cycles. While these factors may have influence, your emotional readiness, savings, debt, future budget and income plan to sustain your desired lifestyle must also be considered.
  • Overlooking the importance of your Social Security election. Some experts say the difference between a good Social Security benefit election and a poor one could equate to more than $100,000 in income.[1] The biggest decision retirees face concerning Social Security is when to start collecting. Just because you can start receiving benefits at age 62 doesn’t necessarily mean you should. If you delay your election until age 70, you may receive 32% more in payments so it may make sense to delay receipt of benefits as long as you can meet your expense obligations.
  • Underestimating the cost of retirement. Most people estimate retirement expenses to be around 85% of after-tax working income. In reality, however, many retirees experience lifestyle sticker-shock as the realities of retirement. One common problem retirees have when budgeting for retirement expenses is that they overlook items like inflation, future taxes, health care, home and car maintenance, and the financial dependence of their loved ones (e.g., sandwich generation costs).
  • Retiring with too much debt. A simple rule of thumb is to pay off as much debt as possible during your earning years. Otherwise, debt repayment will cause a strain on your retirement savings.
  • Failing to come up with an income strategy. Saving is only part of the retirement planning process. You also have to think about spending and decide where and in what order to tap investments. When thinking about cash flow needs throughout retirement, one must also consider how retirement funds can continue to generate growth. An effective way to solve retirement income needs is to have a liquid cash reserve account tied to your portfolio.  The reserve is tapped to deliver a “paycheck” to help you meet predictable expenses. The cash withdrawn is replenished by investments in dividend- and income-producing securities.
  • Dialing too far back on investment risk. As many workers near retirement, they become fixated on cash needs, thus dialing back risk and becoming more conservative in their investments. Unfortunately, the returns generated by ultra-conservative investments may not keep pace with inflation and future tax liabilities. Because retirement can last upwards of 20 years, retirees must set both preservation and growth investment objectives.
  • Not validating the assumptions made during the retirement planning process. You make certain assumptions about investment performance, expenses, and retirement age when you initially create your projected retirement plan. At least annually, you should reconcile your projections against reality. Are you spending more and earning less than anticipated? If so, you may have to make changes, either to your plan or your lifestyle.
  • Providing financial support to adult children. Over the last decade, the number of adult children who live with their parents has risen 15% to a historic high of 36%. Providing financial support to anyone, particularly an adult child, is stressful. It could strain retirement savings and ultimately could create long-term financial dependency in your child.
  • Going it alone. While your financial mission in retirement may seem straightforward—don’t outlive your money—the decisions you make along the way can be complicated. An experienced financial advisor can give you piece of mind for many reasons. An advisor can help you manage your retirement portfolio to meet your preservation and growth objectives, help you establish an income strategy that is matched to your spending needs, and track your spending versus assumptions. If a crisis arises, a trusted financial advisor will already know your financial history and can help make decisions that are in your best interests. Similarly, it is extremely helpful to have a trusted advisor relationship solidified in the event your cognitive abilities decline and you need help with decisions.

[1] http://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-great-new-tool-for-deciding-when-to-take-social-security/

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

February 2016 Monthly Market And Economic Outlook

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

It was a rough start to 2016 for investors. Fears of weaker growth in the U.S. and China and volatile oil prices weighed on global equity markets. With signs of slower growth in the U.S., investors began to worry about the impact of additional tightening moves by the Federal Reserve. Global equities and commodities experienced mid-single digit declines and high-yield credit spreads widened further. U.S. Treasuries benefited from the flight to safety and yields declined. After strong gains in 2015, the strength in the U.S. dollar moderated to start the year.

The S&P 500 Index declined -5% in January. The more defensive sectors – telecom, utilities and consumer staples – were able to produce gains against the backdrop of weaker economic data, but all other sectors were negative on the month. Small caps lagged large caps, while microcaps experienced double-digit declines. Growth lagged value across all market caps, due to the underperformance of the healthcare, consumer discretionary and technology sectors.

International equity markets were in line with U.S. markets in local terms, but lagged slightly in U.S. dollar terms. Emerging markets finished slightly ahead of developed markets in January, despite continued weakness in the equity markets of China and Brazil. The equity markets of both Europe and Japan fell during the month; however, Japan was able to erase some losses on the last trading day of the month when the Bank of Japan moved to implement a negative interest rate policy on excess reserves held at the central bank.

Yields fell across the curve in January as investors preferred the safety of government bonds. The 10-year Treasury note fell 39 basis points to end the month at a level of 1.88%. The decline was felt in both real yields and inflation expectations, and long duration assets benefited. The yield curve flattened marginally. Municipal bonds continued their solid performance run with a 1% gain. Investment grade credit spreads widened, but the asset class was still able to eke out a gain. The high-yield index, on the other hand, experienced another 80 basis points of spread widening and declined -1.6% for the month. Technical pressures still weigh on the high-yield market; however, we have yet to see a meaningful decline in fundamentals outside of the energy sector, at an absolute yield above 9% today, we view the asset class as attractive.

We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term as we view the current market environment as a correction period rather than the start of a bear market. The worst equity market declines are typically associated with recessions, which are preceded by aggressive central bank tightening or accelerating inflation, factors we do not believe are present today. However, we acknowledge that we are in the later innings of the bull market that began in 2009 and the second half of the business cycle, and, while a recession is not our base case, the risks must not be ignored.

A number of factors we find supportive of the economy and markets over the near term.

  • Global monetary policy accommodation: Despite the Federal Reserve beginning to normalize monetary policy with a first rate hike in December, their approach should be patient and data dependent. More signs point to the Fed delaying the next rate hike in March. The Bank of Japan and the ECB have been more aggressive with easing measures in an attempt to support their economies, and China is likely going to require additional support.
  • U.S. growth stable and inflation tame: U.S. economic growth has been modest but steady. Payroll employment growth has been solid and the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9%. Wage growth has been tepid at best despite the tightening labor market, and reported inflation measures and inflation expectations remain below the Fed’s target.
  • Washington: With the new budget fiscal policy is poised to become modestly accommodative, helping offset more restrictive monetary policy.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Policy mistake: The potential for a policy mistake by the Fed or another major central bank is a concern, and central bank communication will be key. In the U.S. the subsequent path of rates is uncertain and may not be in line with market expectations, which could lead to increased volatility.
  • Slower global growth: Economic growth outside the U.S. is decidedly weaker, and a significant slowdown in China is a concern.
  • Wider credit spreads: While overall credit conditions are still accommodative, high-yield credit spreads have moved significantly wider, and weakness has spread outside of the commodity sector.
  • Prolonged weakness in commodity prices: Weakness in commodity-related sectors has begun to spill over to other areas of the economy, and company fundamentals are deteriorating.
  • Geopolitical risks could cause short-term volatility.

On the balance the technical backdrop of the market is weak, but valuations are back to more neutral levels and investor sentiment, a contrarian signal, reached extreme pessimism territory. Investors continue to pull money from equity oriented strategies. We expect a higher level of volatility as markets digest the Fed’s actions and assess the impact of slower global growth; however, our view on risk assets leans positive over the near term. Increased volatility creates opportunities that we can take advantage of as active managers.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor

Investment Insights Podcast – October 27, 2015

miller_podcast_graphicBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 27, 2015):

What we like: Tentative budget debt deal between Congress and President should fund government for next several months; better news and business activity out of China; U.S. consumer balance sheet good; wage growth positive; oil prices remain low

What we don’t like: Initial third quarter earnings just OK; some sales misses due to strong dollar and energy; manufacturing sector under great pressure

What we’re doing about it: Slow and steady wins the race; keeping an eye on any recession-related talk

Click here to listen to the audio recording

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Monthly Market and Economic Outlook: November 2014

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

After a pullback that began in mid-September, the equity markets bounced back sharply in the last two weeks of October. The equity markets shrugged off the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing program and slower economic growth outside of the U.S., viewing the weakness as a buying opportunity. After being down -7% during the correction, the S&P 500 ended the month at a new high. Utilities and healthcare were the top performing sectors, while energy and materials were negative on the month. Small caps bounced back even harder than large caps with the Russell 2000 gaining +6.6% in October, yet small caps have not yet eclipsed their July highs. Year to date through October, mid cap value has been the best performing style, gaining +11.9% due to the strong performance of REITs and utilities.

International equity markets were mixed in October. Developed markets, including Europe and Japan, were generally negative, while emerging markets ended the month in positive territory, led by strong performance in India and China. The U.S. exhibited further strength versus both developed and emerging market currencies. International equity markets have significantly lagged the U.S. markets so far this year; the spread between the S&P 500 Index and MSCI ACWI ex USA Index is 1200 basis points through October.

During the equity market sell-off U.S. Treasury yields declined. The yield on the 10-year note fell almost 50 basis points to a low of 2.14% on October 15, then moved slightly higher to end the month at 2.35%. It was a good month for the fixed income asset class, with all sectors posting positive returns led by corporate credit. High-yield credit spreads widened out 100 basis points in the equity market sell-off, but recaptured 75% of that move in the last two weeks of October. High-yield spreads still remain 100 basis points wider than the low reached in June, and the fundamental backdrop is positive. Municipal bonds had another solid month, benefiting from a continued supply/demand imbalance and improving credit fundamentals.

Our macro outlook has not changed. When weighing the positives and the risks, we continue to believe the balance is shifted even more in favor of the positives over the intermediate-term and the global macro backdrop is constructive for risk assets. As a result our strategic portfolios are positioned with an overweight to overall risk. A number of factors should support the economy and markets over the intermediate term.

  • Global monetary policy remains accommodative: Even with QE complete, Fed policy is still accommodative. U.S. short-term interest rates should remain near-zero until mid-2015 if inflation remains contained. The ECB stands ready to take even more aggressive action to support the European economy, and the Bank of Japan expanded its already aggressive easing program.
  • Pickup in U.S. growth: Economic growth in the U.S. has picked up. Companies are starting to spend on hiring and capital expenditures. Both manufacturing and service PMIs remain in expansion territory. Housing has been weaker, but consumer and CEO confidence are elevated.
  • U.S. companies remain in solid shape: U.S. companies have solid balance sheets that flush with cash. M&A deal activity has picked up this year. Earnings growth has been ahead of expectations and margins have been resilient.
  • Less uncertainty in Washington: After serving as a major uncertainty over the last few years, Washington has done little damage so far this year. Fiscal drag will not have a major impact on growth this year, and the budget deficit has also declined significantly. Government spending will again become a contributor to GDP growth in 2015.

Risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Fed’s withdrawal of stimulus: Risk assets have historically reacted negatively when monetary stimulus has been withdrawn; however, tapering was gradual and the economy is on more solid footing this time. Should inflation measures pick up, market participants will quickly shift to concern over the timing of the Fed’s first interest rate hike. However, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is up only +1.4% over the last 12 months and we have not yet seen the improvement in the labor market translate into a level of wage growth that is worrisome.
  • Global growth: While growth in the U.S. has picked up recently, concerns remain surrounding growth in continental Europe, Japan and some emerging markets. Both the OECD and IMF have downgraded their forecasts for global growth.
  • Geopolitical risks: The events in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as Ebola fears could have a transitory impact on markets.

Despite levels of investor sentiment that have moved back towards optimism territory and valuations that are close to long-term averages, we remain positive on equities for the reasons previously stated. In addition, seasonality and the election cycle are in our favor. The fourth quarter tends to be bullish for equities, as well as the 12-month period following mid-term elections.

Our portfolios are positioned to take advantage of continued strength in risk assets, and we continue to emphasize high-conviction opportunities within asset classes, as well as strategies that can exploit market inefficiencies.

Asset Class Outlook Favored Sub-Asset Classes
U.S. Equity + Large caps growth
Intl Equity + Emerging and frontier markets, small cap
Fixed Income - Global high-yield credit
Absolute Return + Closed-end funds, global macro
Real Assets +/- Natural resources equities
Private Equity + Diversified

Source: Brinker Capital

Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Past performance is not a guarantee of similar future results. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

 

Sequestration Begins

Magnotta@AmyMagnotta, CFA, Brinker Capital

Sequestration, the automatic spending cuts that were agreed to as part of the debt ceiling compromise in the summer of 2011, came into effect on Friday, March 1. The Budget Control Act of 2011 established the bi-partisan “super committee” to produce deficit reduction legislation. As incentive for the super committee to agree to deficit reduction legislation, if Congress failed to act than the across the board spending cuts (sequestration), totaling $1.2 trillion over 10 years, would come into effect on January 2, 2013. The start date was delayed two months as part of the fiscal cliff deal. The cuts are split 50/50 between defense (which was supposed to get the Republicans to act) and domestic discretionary spending (which was supposed to get the Democrats to act).

As expected, Congress and the Administration have not been able to agree on serious deficit reduction so we now face the automatic budget cuts. The public does not seem to be as focused on sequestration as they were on the fiscal cliff. In a recent poll from The Hill, only 36% of likely voters know what the sequester is. The spending cuts are broad based, as the chart below from Strategas Research Partners shows; however, it will take some time for the cuts to come into effect.

3.4.13_Magnotta_Sequestration

Source: Strategas Research Partners, LLC

The drag on GDP growth from the sequester is estimated to be around -0.5% this year. This is not enough drag to push us into a recession if consensus estimates for 2013 growth are correct at 2-2.5%, but the effect is not negligible. The largest hit to GDP growth will likely be in the second quarter once a majority of the spending cuts have begun to take effect. If and when voters begin to feel the impact, there may be pressure on Washington to delay or eliminate the cuts.

We also face the expiration of the continuing resolution that funds the government on March 27, which, if not addressed, could result in a government shutdown. This could be a catalyst for another short-term fix. As typical in politics, whichever party is shouldering the most blame will be more likely to compromise to get a deal done.

The idea of real tax and entitlement reform that promotes growth and puts us on a long-term, sustainable fiscal path seems highly unlikely in this environment. Our elected leaders appear to lack the tenacity to make tough decisions. Sadly, kicking the can down the road is the path of least resistance and often the one that leads to reelection.

Bottom line: Fiscal policy in the U.S. will remain a risk throughout 2013. The spending cuts from the sequester alone are not enough to derail the economic recovery. However, tepid growth is likely to persist, especially in the first half of the year, as disposable incomes have fallen due to the expiration of the payroll tax cut. An accommodative Fed and an improving housing market are positives for growth.

Budgets Get an Extreme Makeover

Sue BerginSue Bergin

The tight economy and some hip personal financial management tools have done the impossible.  They’ve made budgets sexy.

No one ever used to admit that they liked to budget.  Creating a budget was tedious and uncool; sticking to it was even harder.  Thanks to recent technology, however, budgets are being seen in a new light. Today’s economy has made it necessary for more Americans to know, with certainty how much money they have coming into and going out of their household.  As consumers delve into the budgetary process, they are realizing it isn’t nearly as overwhelming and time consuming as they may have thought.

A recent study showed that most Americans follow a spending plan. Nearly half (48%) say they “loosely” follow a budget.  25% “strictly” adhere to their budgets.” Only 27% say they have no budget at all.

Household income is the primary determinant of whether someone will commit to the budget discipline.  36% of those who earned under $30,000 annually followed a budget faithfully.  Only 18% of earners whose salaries exceed $75,000 a year were as vigilant about the budgetary process.

Personal financial management sites such as Mint, Betterment, MoneyDesktop, Yodlee and PNC Virtual Wallet have given the budgeting process an extreme makeover.  They’ve simplified the budgeting process, brought it to life, and even made it fun.  Financial planning software such as the offerings by eMoney Advisor and MoneyGuidePro includes budgeting tools that make it easy for financial advisors to offer an insightful analysis to their clients on how to maximize savings and create user-friendly budgets.

The key innovations that have revolutionized the budgeting process are account consolidation, aggregation and automated expense characterization.  Once accounts are linked and tracked in many of these services, the expenses are automatically pulled in, categorized, and updated regularly.  This simplifies the task of routine budgeting and offers huge relief when it comes time to preparing mortgage and loan applications.

The transparency these services offer into actual spending habits may also be behind the positive ranking survey participants gave to inquiries about their financial holdings.  Nearly half (47%) claimed to know their checking and savings account balances, and 48% have a “rough idea.”  Only 5% say they “do not know”.

When it comes to spending, 36% say they can calculate the “exact amount” while 58% has a “rough idea” of what they pay out each month.  6% had “no idea.”

Innovative technology offers a gateway to help clients become more mindful about spending.  Until a website or mobile app comes along that effectively prevents people from overspending; however, the face-lift offered by technology is simply cosmetic.[1]


[1] Survey statistics mentioned are from CashNetUSA, September 5, 2012