Investment Insights Podcast: We are likely in the 7th inning of this game

Chris HartSenior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded June 15, 2018), Chris discusses what we should expect in the later half of the cycle.

 

Quick hits:

  • In a widely anticipated move last week, the Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points up to a range of 1.75% to 2.0%.
  • It is important to remember that late in the cycle, by definition, means that there is still room for growth and expansion.
  • The Fed has to walk a tight path as it works to balance the risk of overtightening and choking off economic growth with the risk of overheating the economy.
  • Regardless of whether you tend to lean dovish or hawkish, there are indicators in the fixed income markets to watch for that help assess the potential for recession in the intermediate term.
  • Regardless of one’s opinion on policy and interest rates, we have consistently highlighted a theme of the road to interest rate normalization and the risks of policy uncertainty.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: 1 in 9.2 quintillion

Chris HartSenior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded March, 16 2018), Chris talks about the parallels between March Madness and investing.

 

Quick hits:

  • Much like the task of filling out a perfect bracket, which currently stands at 1 in 9.2 quintillion, the chances of correctly predicting drivers of future returns is nearly impossible even for skilled investors.
  • Many have heard the term momentum in the stock markets, and behavioral finance will tell you that novice investors chase performance by allocating to last year’s winners under the guise that results for this year will be the same.
  • While picking the occasional upset is possible, most of the time fans are wrong relying on intuition or gut feel to pick an upset, and it costs them.
  • Brinker Capital knows how difficult it is to achieve successful outcomes, and has investment disciplines in place to help protect and build wealth over the long term.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Are you familiar with the expression, “Don’t fight the tape?”

Chris HartHart_Podcast_338x284Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 3, 2017), Chris highlights some of the more interesting facts that he has come across in recent days from various sources that support the notion of “don’t fight the tape.”.

 

Quick hits:

  • With October complete, the S&P 500 is up more than 15% for the year.  According to our research partners at Strategas, this has only happened 17 times since 1950, and usually indicates continued market strength through the end of the year.
  • A seasonally strong fourth quarter looks even more attractive and helps further confirm our constructive outlook for risk assets for the remainder of 2017.
  • Our partners at Evercore ISI point out that with more than 50% of S&P companies reporting, results have been above analyst expectations.
  • What’s more interesting is that the earnings beats have been skewed more positive than normal.
  • Our outlook remains constructive supported by strong economic data.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Changing dynamics of the active and passive debate

Chris HartHart_Podcast_338x284Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded July 21, 2017), Chris provides some of the more interesting data points and perspectives that help shed light on this potentially changing dynamic.

 

Quick hits:

  • Just as stocks, styles, strategies, sectors, and industries go in and out of favor, so too should performance of active and passive strategies.
  • Passive investing might be peaking and future market conditions suggest a more favorable environment for active management going forward.
  • The incredible growth in the number of ETFs has created a strong headwind for active managers.
  • Correlations between stocks have been stubbornly high while the percentage of active managers outperforming has been below 50% since 2010.
  • The potential for inflation makes it increasingly difficult for markets to rely on the generosity of central banks and continued efficacy of monetary policy.  .
  • At Brinker we believe that both active and passive strategies play an important role in portfolio construction and asset allocation.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: The rally in risk assets continues

Chris HartHart_Podcast_338x284, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded April 28, 2017), Chris discusses what has been the driving force behind the rally in April.

 

Quick hits:

  • The rally in April, despite a brief pause to begin the month, has been driven by positive macroeconomic data, better S&P earnings, and the potential for corporate tax reform.
  • From an equity perspective, stocks have moved higher despite increasing geopolitical risk both domestically and abroad.
  • We remain constructive on risk assets given good enough underlying macroeconomic data but also take notice of rising geopolitical tensions and continued lofty valuations across the equity markets.
  • Looking abroad, developed markets and emerging markets equities have rebounded solidly and now lead the U.S. thus far in 2017.
  • Within fixed income, the aggregate bond index has surprisingly moved higher along with equity markets, while high yield continues to lead.
  • We are keeping a watchful eye on rising global geopolitical tensions, but also note good breadth in the domestic equity markets and stronger corporate earnings.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: What a difference Fed meeting can make

Chris HartHart_Podcast_338x284, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded March 17, 2017), Chris discusses how the recent Fed rate hike has impacted the markets.

 

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Quick hits:

  • Markets moved higher across the board which was a reversal from the flat to down trend that was in place for the last few sessions.
  • Most institutional investors do not have expectations of recession over the near term.
  • The economy continues to strengthen and we believe the case remains to be constructive on risk assets over the intermediate term.
  • Rates are still low by historic standards and even with the increase, the road to interest rate normalization will be long.
  • We continue to believe that a modest overweight to risk is prudent over the intermediate term, and as a result are not planning material changes to portfolio positioning at this point in time.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: The 4th best in terms of return, and the 2nd longest in terms of duration

Hart_Podcast_338x284Chris Hart, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded February 3, 2017), Chris talks about the recent choppiness of the markets and how most major averages continue to trade near their highs.

Quick hits:

  • From an equity perspective, markets have been unsteady recently given uncertainty surrounding the new administration’s policy implementation and agenda which have stirred up more volatility.
  • We believe there is room to move higher because there are not too many traditional indictors that are flashing red at this point in time.
  • Developed markets and emerging markets have posted slight declines recently, but EM rebounded form a weak 4Q and is outperforming developed markets year to date in 2017.
  • The aggregate bond index has performed in line with high yield recently, but High yield remains well ahead of the aggregate index year to date.
  • Overall, we believe the opportunity ahead for risk assets in 2017 is positive, but we remain mindful of increasing macro and geopolitical uncertainties.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Markets have taken a little bit of a breather

Hart_Podcast_338x284Chris Hart, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 22, 2016), Chris is back discussing how directionally many of the trends remain in place as the rotation into equities from bonds continues.

Quick hits:

  • The markets consolidated a bit as Financials and Industrials leadership paused, while previously oversold sectors like Utilities and Healthcare, performed better.
  • International equity performance has proved more challenging.
  • A surprise came from the “dot plot” positioning that was more hawkish than anticipated due to a projected three additional rate hikes in 2017 instead of two.
  • Overall, we remain constructive on the opportunity ahead heading into 2017.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Pointing towards a global re-acceleration

Hart_Podcast_338x284Chris Hart, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 12, 2016), Chris is back discussing how economic and market data have been more favorable and point towards a global re-acceleration.

Quick hits:

  • Risk assets continued to move higher
  • The past week saw a continuation of the “Trump Trade” where pro-growth and pro-cyclical areas of the markets fared best.
  • From an equity sector perspective, cyclicals such as Financials and Industrials continue to be the recipients of strong flows
  • Within fixed income, the credit backdrop remains supportive and treasury yields continue to rise.
  • Current expectations are for a hike in short term interest rates likely by 25 basis points
  • There is good participation across sectors and not the very narrow leadership environment we saw in 2015

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: What a difference a week makes

Hart_Podcast_338x284Chris Hart, Senior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 18, 2016), Chris is back discussing the swing in the markets that has ensued as a result of the election.

Quick hits:

  • By the end of the week, stocks posted gains of more than 5%, the largest weekly advance in two years.
  • However, we note that the rally has been massively rotational in nature rather than broad based.
  • Since the election, the dispersion of returns across has been high with equities moving higher and bonds selling off, domestic outperforming international, and small cap outperforming large caps
  • Much uncertainty remains ahead as the transition of U.S. leadership unfolds along with the strong probability of Fed action next month.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.