Vlog – Market volatility: It’s back! Why? And what comes next?

Brinker Capital’s Global Investment Strategist, Tim Holland, provides perspective around recent market volatility, what triggered it and what impact it’s having on our thinking and portfolio positioning.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: The yield curve – What is it and why does it matter?

Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded January 26, 2018), Tim discusses a topic that’s been receiving significant attention from the media and investors, and that’s the yield curve.

 

Quick hits:

  • The yield curve is simply the spread or difference between the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note and the 2-year US Treasury Note.
  • Usually, our economy is expanding and the yield curve is positively sloped.
  • Two forces typically cause the yield curve to flatten or invert: 1. the Federal Reserve raising the Fed Funds Rate, and 2. when investors continue to invest in the long end of the yield curve.
  • The yield curve has been flattening of late. So do we at Brinker think it might be signaling a recession?

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Video Blog – Recessions: what, why, and when?

Welcome to the inaugural post of the Brinker Capital Vlog, a monthly video series where we tackle timely market and economic topics. We hope you find the following video content valuable.

On today’s vlog, Tim Holland, Global Investment Strategist at Brinker Capital, discusses recessions – what they are; what causes them; and his predictions for when the next one will hit.

Investment Insights Podcast: US vs. International

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 15, 2017), Tim discusses why Brinker Capital has a bias toward US equities relative to developed international equities.

Quick hits:

  • Our clients are US based; they make their money in US dollars, they save in US dollars and they spend in US dollars.
  • Primarily because of the currency dynamic, international stocks are more volatile.
  • From an investment and relative attractiveness perspective, we would first say we don’t dislike developed international equities, we simply like US equities more, on both a near term and long-term basis.
  • Brinker Capital has been overweight emerging market equites since 2016.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Emerging markets generally do not have the level of market efficiency and strict standards in accounting and securities regulation to be on par with developed economies, but emerging markets will typically have a physical financial infrastructure including banks, a stock exchange and a unified currency. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Oil bounces back

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 1, 2017), Tim discusses what’s been pushing the commodity higher and, maybe more importantly, where the price of crude goes from here.

Quick hits:

  • Two primary factors are driving the rally in the price of oil, and from an economics perspective they are the classics: supply and demand.
  • Facing greater demand and reduced supply, are we worried that the price of crude will continue to move up?  Our short answer, is no.
  • Looking out over the next year or so, we believe the price of oil will be range bound, with a lower band around $40 a barrel and an upper band around $60 a barrel.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: When will the next recession hit?

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 20, 2017), Tim takes a closer look at the somewhat unpleasant topic of Recession — including what causes them and when the next one might hit.

Quick hits:

  • There are three historic catalysts for a recession: The Federal Reserve, a bursting bubble, and an exogenous shock.
  • When will the next recession hit? The short answer? Not now.
  • Interest rates remain at reasonable levels, corporate revenues and earnings are growing, unemployment claims and the unemployment rate are at historic lows, and consumers and corporations have ample access to credit.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Who is the next Fed Chair?

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 30, 2017), Tim discusses who President Trump might announce as his nominee for Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Quick hits:

  • The three leading candidates seem to be Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Stanford Professor John Taylor and Chairwoman Yellen.
  • While any prediction tied to the Trump Administration comes with a heightened level of risk, we believe Mr. Powell will be chosen by the President to serve as the next Fed Chair.
  • If Mr. Powell does become the next Fed Chair, we don’t expect much of a change near-term concerning U.S. monetary policy.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Harvey & Irma upend the jobs market

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 13, 2017), Tim discusses why the jobs market turned south after seven years of net job growth, and if the disappointing September report is a harbinger of a weakening economy or possibly even a recession.

Quick hits:

  • According to the Department of Labor, the U.S. lost 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first month in seven years that the labor market failed to expand.
  • One can assume Harvey and Irma had a significant – and temporary – impact on the jobs market.
  • While Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were tragic events, we don’t see them having a lasting, negative impact on the economy, which remains on very firm footing.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Headed for home

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 29, 2017), Tim discusses how we at Brinker Capital do not currently see a reason to change our thinking on market history and fundamentals as we head into October.

Quick hits:

  • We have been overweight risk assets and overweight U.S. equities.
  • So far, as we move into the end of Q3, the expected pattern of equity market strength is holding, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% in the quarter.
  • We see many more positives than negatives when we consider the underlying fundamentals for the market and the economy.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: When the macro clouds clear

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 15, 2017), Tim discusses how Brinker Capital’s focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals.

Quick hits:

  • Despite the strong fundamentals in early September, the market was languishing as investors focused on current political and geo-political events.
  • We will of course continue to monitor political and geo-political events, but our focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals; those factors that more than any other drive stock prices over the long-term.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.