Investment Insights Podcast: Oil bounces back

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 1, 2017), Tim discusses what’s been pushing the commodity higher and, maybe more importantly, where the price of crude goes from here.

Quick hits:

  • Two primary factors are driving the rally in the price of oil, and from an economics perspective they are the classics: supply and demand.
  • Facing greater demand and reduced supply, are we worried that the price of crude will continue to move up?  Our short answer, is no.
  • Looking out over the next year or so, we believe the price of oil will be range bound, with a lower band around $40 a barrel and an upper band around $60 a barrel.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: When will the next recession hit?

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 20, 2017), Tim takes a closer look at the somewhat unpleasant topic of Recession — including what causes them and when the next one might hit.

Quick hits:

  • There are three historic catalysts for a recession: The Federal Reserve, a bursting bubble, and an exogenous shock.
  • When will the next recession hit? The short answer? Not now.
  • Interest rates remain at reasonable levels, corporate revenues and earnings are growing, unemployment claims and the unemployment rate are at historic lows, and consumers and corporations have ample access to credit.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Who is the next Fed Chair?

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 30, 2017), Tim discusses who President Trump might announce as his nominee for Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Quick hits:

  • The three leading candidates seem to be Fed Governor Jerome Powell, Stanford Professor John Taylor and Chairwoman Yellen.
  • While any prediction tied to the Trump Administration comes with a heightened level of risk, we believe Mr. Powell will be chosen by the President to serve as the next Fed Chair.
  • If Mr. Powell does become the next Fed Chair, we don’t expect much of a change near-term concerning U.S. monetary policy.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Harvey & Irma upend the jobs market

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 13, 2017), Tim discusses why the jobs market turned south after seven years of net job growth, and if the disappointing September report is a harbinger of a weakening economy or possibly even a recession.

Quick hits:

  • According to the Department of Labor, the U.S. lost 33,000 jobs in September, marking the first month in seven years that the labor market failed to expand.
  • One can assume Harvey and Irma had a significant – and temporary – impact on the jobs market.
  • While Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were tragic events, we don’t see them having a lasting, negative impact on the economy, which remains on very firm footing.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Headed for home

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 29, 2017), Tim discusses how we at Brinker Capital do not currently see a reason to change our thinking on market history and fundamentals as we head into October.

Quick hits:

  • We have been overweight risk assets and overweight U.S. equities.
  • So far, as we move into the end of Q3, the expected pattern of equity market strength is holding, with the S&P 500 up more than 3% in the quarter.
  • We see many more positives than negatives when we consider the underlying fundamentals for the market and the economy.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: When the macro clouds clear

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 15, 2017), Tim discusses how Brinker Capital’s focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals.

Quick hits:

  • Despite the strong fundamentals in early September, the market was languishing as investors focused on current political and geo-political events.
  • We will of course continue to monitor political and geo-political events, but our focus will remain on market and economic fundamentals; those factors that more than any other drive stock prices over the long-term.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Forgotten fundamentals

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 1, 2017), Tim discusses how recent current events are not fundamental to the market’s long-term performance.

Quick hits:

  • In the first half of 2017, the S&P 500 delivered year over year earnings growth of 12%, driven by double digit gains in both the first and second quarter.
  • The robust earnings performance of the S&P 500 is important for several reasons.
  • The underlying economic and market fundamentals are what matter most over the long term, and for the time being the news on both fronts is much more good than bad.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: US Equities & Constitutional Crises

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 23, 2017), Tim examines how the stock market fared during recent Constitutional crises

Quick hits:

  • During that tumultuous Watergate Period, the S&P 500 sold off approximately 30%, easily clearing the Bear Market threshold of a 20% correction.
  • During the 13 months of The Whitewater / Monica Lewinsky Period, the S&P 500 was up approximately 20%, a far better showing than its return during The Watergate Period.
  • While the two periods had much in common politically, why were they so dissimilar when it came to stock market returns?

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Emerging Markets – Going beyond the headlines

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded July 28, 2017), Tim takes a closer look at Emerging Markets and why we own them.

Quick hits:

  • After under-performing U.S. and developed international equities for several years, Emerging Market equities are outdistancing both asset classes since the beginning of 2016.
  • The four largest emerging markets on an adjusted GDP basis are Brazil, Russia, India and China, often referred to as the “BRIC Countries.
  • While there are many positives to investing in emerging markets, there are also meaningful risks including political instability, infrastructure problems and currency volatility.
  • Considering the cyclical and secular tailwinds, we are overweight emerging market equities and remain constructive on the asset class.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. 

Foreign securities are more volatile, harder to price and less liquid than U.S. securities; and are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards, and political and economic risks. These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries.

Investment Insights Podcast: When it comes to crude oil, why lower for longer is a good thing

Holland_Podcast_150x126Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded July 12, 2017), Tim addresses crude oil, what’s been weighing on the commodity as of late, and whether we should view that weakness as a net positive or negative for the U.S. economy.

Quick hits:

  • Any, and all, discussion of crude oil must begin with fracking. Fracking has enabled energy companies to tap long known, but historically inaccessible deposits of oil and gas across the United States
  • The impact on U.S. production of oil and gas – and on global energy markets – has been revolutionary.
  • U.S. crude oil production should hit 10 million barrels a day in 2018
  • If Texas were an oil producing nation it would rank among the top 10 producers in the world

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.