The U.S.A. Is Atypical
The recovery of the U.S. economy from its coronavirus-driven downturn has been, we think, remarkable. Consider that the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 14.8% to 5.8%; weekly jobless claims have fallen from a peak of 6.1 million to 385,000; and total employment…
Doing More with Less, a Lot More
For as big, complex, and dynamic as the U.S. economy is, the formula for measuring and understanding its growth is straightforward: Economic growth is driven by growth in the size of the workforce and/or growth in productivity of that workforce (output per hour worked). While…
Are We Talking About, Talking About Tapering?
We think one of the more iconic phrases ever spoken by a central banker is “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates,” by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a June 2020 Fed press conference. As we sit here nearly a year later,…
Getting Back to Zero – Well, Sort of
One of the more fascinating financial developments of the post Great Recession period was the advent of negative yielding bonds. This is a condition present when the premium paid for a bond is so great relative to its par value, it exceeds any income the…
Nobody Likes to Pay More for Stuff. So Why Does The Fed?
Most folks on Wall Street agree prices for all sorts of things are moving higher, both at the goods level (think corn, oil, copper, houses, used cars) and at the broad basket level (think the Consumer Price Index). Now, given the shutting down of the…
Not to Get Technical, But Let’s Get Technical
One of the more interesting points about investing is the myriad of ways one can go about putting capital into risk assets. Among other options, there are actively managed and passive vehicles; there are highly-concentrated and broadly-diversified strategies; and there are fundamentally and quantitatively driven…
Dow 36,000? Dow 148,000?
At the risk of stating the obvious, those of us who have been paying attention to the markets for the past 21 years have seen a thing or two: the bursting of the tech, media and telecom stock market bubble and the bear market and…
Thinking About Blockbuster Video After a Blockbuster Week
All (most?) of us are likely users of the ubiquitous streaming service, Netflix; most (many?) of us likely remember when Netflix wasn’t even a streaming service, but a purveyor of DVDs by mail; and many (some?) of us likely remember what life was like before…