Looking Past the Fiscal Cliff

MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFA, Brinker Capital

It looks like there will be some deal on the fiscal cliff that emerges from Washington before the end of the year—either (1) a large deal that includes a compromise on higher revenues, spending cuts and entitlement reforms, or (2) a smaller deal that results in a larger fiscal drag than consensus currently anticipates. Time is running out, and the market will likely be disappointed if Congress leaves for the Christmas holiday without a more specific plan in place.

In his research report today, Don Rismiller, Chief Economist at Strategas Research Partners, encouraged investors to look through the fiscal cliff and to take notice of the number of good things that are happening in the U.S. economy. Rismiller provided a dozen reasons for optimism after the fiscal cliff is resolved.

The Other Side

Positives on the Other Side of the Fiscal Cliff:

  1. The Fed has followed through on “QE4.”
  2. Additional global easing is expected (e.g., Abe & BoJ, Carney & BoE).
  3. The bond market has digested additional U.S. debt well (10-yr @ 1.8%).
  4. The U.S. dollar has held value (meaning there’s room for policy to operate).
  5. Housing has bottomed in the U.S.
  6. There’s pent-up demand for household formation (buy or rent).
  7. There’s pent-up demand being created for capex (which has already fallen).
  8. There’s likely some pent-up demand for autos (hurricane replacement).
  9. While small, nonresidential construction could increase with hurricane rebuilding.
  10. Domestic energy production continues to ramp up.
  11. Equity valuations look attractive.
  12. Equity multiples bottom before earnings, which is likely an early 2013 story.

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