Stuart P. Quint, CFA, Senior Investment Manager & International Strategist
On this week’s podcast (recorded March 21, 2016), Stuart weighs in on all things Brazil especially on the current political climate and its economic impact.
Why talk about Brazil?
- It’s the eighth largest economy in the world.
- It’s the largest economy in Latin America.
- For the last several years, it’s been a large drag on emerging market economic growth.
So, what’s been happening?
- Brazilian markets shifted from a bear to a bull in March, as currency rebounded and markets followed.
- There is increased hope for major political change as the current administration under President Dilma Rousseff faces potential impeachment.
- Rousseff’s approval rating has plummeted (62% now disapprove) since her reelection in 2014 amid political scandal and economic stagnation.
Let’s talk about this scandal
- In what has been labeled “Operation Car Wash”, the two-year investigation centers around corruption between oil giant Petrobras involving dozens of corporate executives and political figures.
- Rousseff was head of Petrobras until 2010, prior to taking office.
- Former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula, who was to be Rousseff’s Chief of Staff, has been implicated on bribery charges.
- Encouraged by massive protests, opposing politicians have called for a formal impeachment process to begin.
How does this begin to shape the Brazilian economy?
- The prospect of a new start in Brazil bodes well for markets–Brazilian index has risen over 27% in 2016, currency has appreciated 10% in March alone.
That’s great, but there’s more to it
- The path to impeachment is murky and should not be taken for granted.
- Operation Car Wash has indicted politicians from both the current regime and the opposition.
- Even with the possibility of a new government, political consensus on structural reform appears evasive for Brazil.
- Pensions, infrastructure, and autonomy of the central bank are important to address in order to revive the Brazilian economy.
Where does Brazil stand now?
- Overall, the economy is in a difficult situation–GDP declined in 2015 and is set to decline again in 2016.
- Inflation continues to rise and exceeds targets set by Central Bank.
- Unemployment and bad credit also continue to rise.
- Given that Brazil represents over half of the GDP and total population of Latin America, economic prospects are important for growth.
Please click here to listen to the full recording.
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, a Registered Investment Advisor.