Since 1987, Brinker Capital has provided investment solutions based on ideas generated from listening to the needs of advisors. From being a pioneer of multi-asset class investments to using behavioral finance to manage the emotions of investing, our disciplined investment approach is the key to helping investors achieve better outcomes.
On this week’s podcast (recorded November 20, 2015), we focus on the likelihood that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will add the Renminbi (RMB) as an approved currency in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket. Will this displace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency?
What we like: We don’t believe the RMB will supplant the dollar as the favored reserve currency, at least not anytime soon; law and precedent in our judicial system is more structured and supportive–not the case in China; debt markets aren’t well-developed in China; Chinese don’t necessarily want the RMB to be a much stronger currency relative to the U.S. dollar as it would impact their ability to export; approval would likely lead to more reform in China, which would add to global stability
What we don’t like: This won’t necessarily solve China’s current growth problems; would likely have some type of ripple effect (Australian dollar)
What we’re doing about it: Standing pat; announcement may come soon, but would not take shape for another year or so; no need to rush into portfolio changes; not a major concern to the U.S. dollar at this time
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.
Stuart P. Quint, CFA, Senior Investment Manager and International Strategist
The consideration of adding the yuan, or as others may refer to it more formally as renminbi (RMB), as the fifth member to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDR) list has been debated for many years. However, while it is expected that China will eventually have its currency recognized by the (IMF), the question is timing of this conversion.
The recent crash of China’s stock market, combined with strong state intervention of measures that go against the grain of market liberalization, has the potential to delay acceptance of the yuan. That’s not to say that the central bank won’t want to proceed as proposed, but competing forces might gain strength in calling for a go-slow approach in making the decision.
In the near term, the adoption of the yuan would likely prompt U.S. dollar selling. China is experiencing weaker growth, and monetary policy is easing while the U.S. is stable to getting tighter. The appetite of central banks to dump dollars in favor of yuan will take time. However, over the long term, the yuan could be the major competing currency to the U.S. dollar–if China can conduct further structural reform that restores confidence in more sustainable growth.
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, a Registered Investment Advisor.