Investment Insights Podcast: What’s roiling the market, and where do we go from here?

Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 6, 2018),
Tim discusses the recent drawdown in US equities and the associated volatility.

Quick hits:

  • Since October 1st, the S&P 500 is off approximately 9% while also experiencing two intra-period rallies of approximately 6%.
  • While both trade and monetary policy are legitimate concerns for the market into year end, we continue to believe that cooler heads will prevail concerning the US / China trade dynamic and that the US Federal Reserve will move cautiously on interest rates in the new year.
  • Brinker Capital remains constructive on the US economy and US equities into year end.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: The top of many investor’s list of worries

Chris HartSenior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 30, 2018), Chris discusses investor concerns about the Fed and interest rates.

 

Quick hits:

  • Recent statements by the Fed appear to indicate a change in its messaging after introducing the idea that a data dependent approach in 2019 might be prudent.
  • The Fed may be closer to a neutral stance regarding monetary policy—meaning a level at which the Fed Funds rate neither stimulates nor slows economic growth.
  • If the Fed does take a data-dependent approach in 2019, this doesn’t mean that it will become unpredictable from meeting to meeting.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: The flip side of sell in May and go away

Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 20, 2018),
Tim discusses the often used Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away,” which cleverly lets the listener know that returns provided by US equities have historically exhibited a seasonal pattern.

Quick hits:

  • US equities have historically exhibited a seasonal pattern, with the months of May, June, July, August, September and October underperforming the months of November, December, January, February, March and April.
  • So far this November, historical patterns haven’t held with the S&P 500; as of this recording, off about 1% on a total return basis month to date.
  • Seasonal patterns aside, we remain constructive on US equities.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: November 2018 market and economic outlook

Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded November 9, 2018), Leigh provides a brief review of the October markets.

 

Quick hits:

  • It was a rough start to the fourth quarter as increasing concerns over the “wall of worry” led to risk assets suffering a sharp drawdown in October.
  • Despite these negatives, US fundamentals remained solid with third quarter US real GDP growth coming in at 3.5% and unemployment at a record low.
  • The S&P 500 Index was down -6.8% for the month, bringing the year to date gain down to 3.0%
  • Developed international equities, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, were down -8.0% for the month and -8.9% year to date.
  • The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index was down -0.8% for the month and is down -2.4% year to date.
  • Despite the October sell-off in equity markets, we remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate term.

Listen_Icon  Listen to the abbreviated audio recording.

Read_Icon  Read the full November Market and Economic Outlook.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

 

Investment Insights Podcast: Unpleasant, yes; deterioration in fundamentals, no

Amy Magnotta, CFASenior Vice President, Brinker Capital

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 26, 2018), Amy discusses the recent market volatility.

Quick hits:

  • The S&P 500 Index is down -7.6% from its September high, but has not yet reached official correction status.
  • Third quarter earnings have been stellar for the most part.
  • Investors have a number of concerns that are weighing on markets.
  • We continue to believe that the positives outweigh the risks, and we do not see that a recession is imminent.

For Amy’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: October 2018 market and economic outlook

Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded October 12, 2018), Leigh provides a brief review of the third quarter markets.

 

Quick hits:

  • Risk assets were mixed for the third quarter with domestic equities outperforming international equities by a large margin.
  • Despite what historically is a challenging quarter from a seasonality perspective, a strong macroeconomic backdrop triggered robust growth within US equities.
  • The S&P 500 Index was up 7.2% for the quarter with all sectors posting positive returns and year-to-date is up 10.6%.
  • Developed international equities, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, were up 1.4% for the quarter and down -1.0% year-to-date.
  • The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index was flat for the quarter and down -1.6% year-to-date.
  • We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate term, although we acknowledge we are in the later innings of the bull market and the second half of the business cycle.

Listen_Icon  Listen to the abbreviated audio recording.

Read_Icon  Read the full October Market and Economic Outlook.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

 

Investment Insights Podcast: The dreaded yield curve inversion


Andrew Goins
, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 24, 2018), Andrew discusses the probability of future Fed rate hikes and the potential impact of the yield curve.

Quick hits:

  • The more highly anticipated event will be the release of the Beige Book following this weeks meetings, which covers everything discussed and includes the widely followed dot plot.
  • We’ve been dealing with a very flat yield curve for much of this year.
  • Everyone is watching closely for the dreaded yield curve inversion, which has been an ominous sign for impending recessions historically.
  • While the curve remains flat, but positively sloped, and with the weight of the evidence leaning positive, our portfolios remain overweight to equities.

For Andrew’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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This is not a recommendation for Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. These securities are shown for illustrative purposes only.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: September 2018 market and economic outlook

Leigh Lowman, CFA, Investment Manager

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 7, 2018), Leigh provides a brief review of August markets.

 

Quick hits:

  • Despite what historically is a difficult month for markets, US equities finished in strong positive territory and a new record was set for the longest bull market in history.
  • The S&P 500 Index was up 3.3% for the month and has gained 9.9% year to date.
  • Developed international equities as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index were down -1.9% for the month and -1.9% year to date.
  • Emerging Markets Index was down -2.7% for the month and -6.9% year to date.
  • The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index was up 0.6% for the month with all sectors posting positive returns.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield declined 12 basis points, ending the month at 2.85%, and led to further flattening of the yield curve.

Listen_Icon  Listen to the abbreviated audio recording.

Read_Icon  Read the full August Market and Economic Outlook.

 

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.

 

Investment Insights Podcast: Markets climbing a wall of worry

Chris HartSenior Vice President

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 30, 2018), Chris discusses the seven bricks that Strategas considers to be the largest in their “wall of worry”.

 

Quick hits:

  • Many believe we are witness to one of the most unloved bull markets of all time.
  • It is important to try and set aside emotion and gut feeling, and instead focus on fundamentals to help guide your decision-making process.
  • Are there plenty of bricks in the wall to worry about? Yes, but fundamentals remain strong and reinforce our belief that markets still have room to move higher.

For the rest of Chris’s insight, click here to listen to the audio recording.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast: Will Turkey topple the global economy?

Tim Holland, CFA, Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategist

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 24, 2018),
Tim discusses if the economic and market issues in Turkey might serve as catalysts for a global recession and bear market.

Quick hits:

  • The country’s Borsa Instanbul 100 Index is off 22% year to date and its currency, the Lira, has lost half its value against the US dollar.
  • Turkey accounts for 1.5% of the world’s GDP, so the country is a nominal contributor to global growth.

For Tim’s full insights, click here to listen to the audio recording.


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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a registered investment advisor.