Investment Insights Podcast – Leading Indicators Report Strong Economy

miller_podcast_graphicBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded April 1, 2016), Bill reports again on the importance of leading indicators and what they are showing in terms of the stability of the economy and if a recession is likely:

What we like: Investors should focus on leading indicators; good economic data to report: order rates for manufacturing strong; employment data continues to be positive; wages are increasing; recession happening this year becomes less likely with strong data from these leading indicators

What we don’t like: On the contrary, the strong data makes a larger case for higher interest rates; with wage and labor reports positive, Fed may act on their mandate and the interest rate discussion heats up

What we’re doing about it: Portfolios will maintain the theme of interest rate normalization

Click here to listen to the audio recording

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

February 2016 Monthly Market And Economic Outlook

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

It was a rough start to 2016 for investors. Fears of weaker growth in the U.S. and China and volatile oil prices weighed on global equity markets. With signs of slower growth in the U.S., investors began to worry about the impact of additional tightening moves by the Federal Reserve. Global equities and commodities experienced mid-single digit declines and high-yield credit spreads widened further. U.S. Treasuries benefited from the flight to safety and yields declined. After strong gains in 2015, the strength in the U.S. dollar moderated to start the year.

The S&P 500 Index declined -5% in January. The more defensive sectors – telecom, utilities and consumer staples – were able to produce gains against the backdrop of weaker economic data, but all other sectors were negative on the month. Small caps lagged large caps, while microcaps experienced double-digit declines. Growth lagged value across all market caps, due to the underperformance of the healthcare, consumer discretionary and technology sectors.

International equity markets were in line with U.S. markets in local terms, but lagged slightly in U.S. dollar terms. Emerging markets finished slightly ahead of developed markets in January, despite continued weakness in the equity markets of China and Brazil. The equity markets of both Europe and Japan fell during the month; however, Japan was able to erase some losses on the last trading day of the month when the Bank of Japan moved to implement a negative interest rate policy on excess reserves held at the central bank.

Yields fell across the curve in January as investors preferred the safety of government bonds. The 10-year Treasury note fell 39 basis points to end the month at a level of 1.88%. The decline was felt in both real yields and inflation expectations, and long duration assets benefited. The yield curve flattened marginally. Municipal bonds continued their solid performance run with a 1% gain. Investment grade credit spreads widened, but the asset class was still able to eke out a gain. The high-yield index, on the other hand, experienced another 80 basis points of spread widening and declined -1.6% for the month. Technical pressures still weigh on the high-yield market; however, we have yet to see a meaningful decline in fundamentals outside of the energy sector, at an absolute yield above 9% today, we view the asset class as attractive.

We remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term as we view the current market environment as a correction period rather than the start of a bear market. The worst equity market declines are typically associated with recessions, which are preceded by aggressive central bank tightening or accelerating inflation, factors we do not believe are present today. However, we acknowledge that we are in the later innings of the bull market that began in 2009 and the second half of the business cycle, and, while a recession is not our base case, the risks must not be ignored.

A number of factors we find supportive of the economy and markets over the near term.

  • Global monetary policy accommodation: Despite the Federal Reserve beginning to normalize monetary policy with a first rate hike in December, their approach should be patient and data dependent. More signs point to the Fed delaying the next rate hike in March. The Bank of Japan and the ECB have been more aggressive with easing measures in an attempt to support their economies, and China is likely going to require additional support.
  • U.S. growth stable and inflation tame: U.S. economic growth has been modest but steady. Payroll employment growth has been solid and the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9%. Wage growth has been tepid at best despite the tightening labor market, and reported inflation measures and inflation expectations remain below the Fed’s target.
  • Washington: With the new budget fiscal policy is poised to become modestly accommodative, helping offset more restrictive monetary policy.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Policy mistake: The potential for a policy mistake by the Fed or another major central bank is a concern, and central bank communication will be key. In the U.S. the subsequent path of rates is uncertain and may not be in line with market expectations, which could lead to increased volatility.
  • Slower global growth: Economic growth outside the U.S. is decidedly weaker, and a significant slowdown in China is a concern.
  • Wider credit spreads: While overall credit conditions are still accommodative, high-yield credit spreads have moved significantly wider, and weakness has spread outside of the commodity sector.
  • Prolonged weakness in commodity prices: Weakness in commodity-related sectors has begun to spill over to other areas of the economy, and company fundamentals are deteriorating.
  • Geopolitical risks could cause short-term volatility.

On the balance the technical backdrop of the market is weak, but valuations are back to more neutral levels and investor sentiment, a contrarian signal, reached extreme pessimism territory. Investors continue to pull money from equity oriented strategies. We expect a higher level of volatility as markets digest the Fed’s actions and assess the impact of slower global growth; however, our view on risk assets leans positive over the near term. Increased volatility creates opportunities that we can take advantage of as active managers.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor

10 Surefire Ways to Ruin Your Financial Future

Crosby_2015Dr. Daniel Crosby, Executive Director, The Center for Outcomes

It’s been a brutal day, a long week, and just an overall rough start to the year for the markets. To head into the weekend on, hopefully, a lighter note, I’m taking a tongue-in-check approach to the irrational investor mindset:

  1. Ignore the impact of your behavior – Over the last 20 years, the market has returned an average of 8.25% per annum, but the average investor has gotten just over 4% of that due to poor investment behavior. But making prudent decisions is much less interesting than say, trying to time a bottom in oil prices, so by all means allocate your efforts there.
  2. Trust your gut – A meta-analysis of rules-based approaches to making decisions found that following the rules beats or equals trusting your gut 94% of the time. You know what you should be doing (stay the course, dollar-cost average, etc…), but rules are boring, so just do what feels right with your money!
  3. Live for right now – The worst ever 25-year return for stocks (that included the Great Depression) was 5.9% annualized. But patiently planning over an investment lifetime is sooo tedious, so be sure to check your stocks every single day, where you will see red about 45% of the time.
  4. Do as much as possible – When things get scary it feels good to act, right? Right. Disregard the research that shows that the most active traders in Sweden underperformed their buy-and-hold counterparts by 4% a year. Instead, freak out and sell everything!
  5. Equate volatility with risk – Stocks outperform other asset classes by about 5% annualized after adjusting for volatility, but the ups and downs can be a lot to handle! Volatility also provides opportunities to buy once-expensive names at a bargain. But go ahead and ignore all of the upside to volatility and do something “safe”, like buying treasuries that don’t keep up with inflation and lose real dollars every year.
  6. Go it alone – Aon Hewitt, Morningstar and Vanguard all place the value of financial advice at anywhere from 2 to 3% per year in excess returns, but don’t let that stop you. With multiple 24/7 news channels and hysteria-inducing magazines available to you, who needs personalized advice?
  7. Try and beat the benchmark – You could argue that beating an impersonal market benchmark like the S&P 500 has nothing to do with your goals or risk tolerance, but that takes all the fun out of it! Just go watch “The Big Short” and pick up a few pointers there.
  8. Read every article that mentions “recession” – The U.S. economy has been in a recession nearly 20% of the time since 1928, meaning that the average investor will experience 10 to 15 recessions over their lifetime. But by all means, read every scary article that you can rather than accepting the historical trend that recessions are a common occurrence and haven’t materially impacted the long-term ability of the market to compound wealth.
  9. Tune in to dramatic forecasts – David Dreman found that roughly 1 in 170 analyst forecasts are within 5% of reality and Philip Tetlock’s examination of 82,000 “expert” predictions shows that they barely outperform flipping a coin. So, ignore the robust body of evidence that says no one can predict the future and pick a market prophet to follow.
  10. Ignore history – JP Morgan reports that the average intrayear drawdown over the past 35 years has been just over 14%, a number we haven’t yet reached in 2016. What’s more, the market has ended higher in 27 of those 35 years. Forget the fact that the horror of 1987’s “Black Monday” (a 22.61% single day drop in the Dow) actually ended in a positive year for stocks. Ignore historical suggestions that double-digit volatility is the norm and instead imagine vivid Doomsday scenarios that leave you in financial tatters.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Happy New Year?

Stuart QuintStuart P. Quint, CFA, Senior Investment Manager & International Strategist

Although we are only nine business days into 2016, markets have gotten off to a rough start. As of January 13, 2016, the S&P 500 was down -7.7% while a moderate-risk[1] benchmark was down -4.2%. In fact, this year has seen the worst start to any calendar year on record.

Unlike past corrections, the catalyst for the recent sell-off in markets is less obvious. One thought is that we are seeing a delayed response to the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike. Markets appear displeased with the timing of the Fed’s action, given the stalling economic growth. In our opinion, the Fed should have considered raising rates a year ago when economic growth was stronger.

Another consideration, it’s conceivable that investors are finally grasping the reality of slower growth in China. This is a factor that we have monitored for quite some time (and a factor in being underweight large emerging markets); but, the timing as to why the markets are worrying about China now is less clear.

There are other factors, too, that might be contributing to the downbeat mood in markets:

  • Slowdown in the Chinese economy and continued devaluation of its currency
  • Continued weakness and flight of capital in emerging markets
  • Weak oil prices (lower capital spend offsetting benefit to consumers)
  • Narrow leadership of U.S. equities (e.g. “FANG” stocks driving markets – high valuation, momentum, expectations with little room for disappointment)
  • Selloff in high-yield bonds
  • Continued deterioration in U.S. and global manufacturing
  • Strengthening of U.S. dollar and its corresponding hit to corporate earnings
  • Ongoing weakness in corporate revenue growth and economic growth
  • 2016 U.S. presidential elections
  • Disappointment in global central bank actions (Europe, Japan, China)

While the picture painted above seems saturated in negativity, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are assuredly some more positive factors to consider:

  • Global policy remains accommodative, particularly in Europe and Japan
  • U.S. interest rates remain low by historic standards
  • Job creation in the U.S. remains positive
  • U.S. bank lending continues to grow at moderate pace
  • U.S. services (majority of U.S. economic activity) continue to show moderate growth
  • Looser U.S. fiscal policy should marginally contribute toward GDP growth in 2016 (estimated)
  • Economic growth in Europe appears stable, albeit tepid
  • Direct impact of emerging market weakness to U.S. economy is less than 5% of GDP

In terms of how we address this in our portfolios, we continue to monitor these conditions and are assessing the risks and opportunities. Within our strategic portfolios, such as our Destinations mutual fund program, we have marginally reduced stated risk within more conservative portfolios while maintaining a slight overweight to risk in more aggressive portfolios. Following the trend of the last several years, we have trimmed exposure to riskier segments, such as credit within fixed income and small cap within equities. Tactical portfolios entered the year with neutral to slightly-positive beta on near-term concerns of high valuations and China.

The S&P 500 has dominated all asset classes in recent years.  A potential end to that reign should not cause alarm, but instead refocus attention to the long-term benefits of diversification and why there are reasons to own strategies which do not just act like the S&P 500.

In general, investors should not panic but rather continue to evaluate their risk tolerance and suitability, as well as engage in consistent dialogue with their financial advisors. The turn of the calendar might just be the ideal time to review those needs.

[1] Theoretical benchmark representing 60% equity (42% Russell 3000 Index, 18% MSCI AC ex-US), and 40% fixed income (38% Barclay Aggregate and 2% T-Bill)

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast – Why So Shaky, Markets?

miller_podcast_graphicBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded January 7, 2016), Bill lends some insight into why markets have started the year so volatile, and what that means for the long-term outlook.

Two themes are at the heart of the current market weakness: (1) Chinese government has meddled too much with its market and currency and (2) Central banks have kept interest rates too low for too long.

China

  • Stock prices are two to three times more expensive relative to Germany, U.S., Japan and others
  • China halted trading (twice) so investor’s couldn’t get to their investments, causing panicked behavior among investors
  • Officials manipulated down the value of the yuan in an effort to stimulate exports, creating more fear in investors
  • Things must be weak enough where officials think that they have to stimulate exports

Central Banks

  • Central banks around the world have kept interest rates near zero, but now that is shifting
  • U.S. has raised rates and there is talk of raising them again in 2016; but Europe and Japan remain at near-zero levels, creating a credibility issue
  • Investors now questioning why U.S. is going in one direction and Europe and Japan in another, and what that means to their investments

The combination of Chinese market manipulation and central bank credibility is surely causing fear, and perhaps some irrational investing, but it’s important to temper those voices. While the current volatility may take some time to pass, it feels more like a market correction and less of a large-scale economic issue.

Click here to listen to the audio recording

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Five Answers for the Voices in Your Head

Crosby_2015Dr. Daniel Crosby, Executive Director, The Center for Outcomes

Many investors are waking up this morning to the unsettling realization that trading was halted in China last night after another precipitous market drop. When paired with rumors of hydrogen bomb testing in North Korea, the recent acts of domestic terrorism and a long-in-the-tooth bull market, it can all be a little frightening and overwhelming.

It’s at a time like this that it’s best to temper the catastrophic voices in our head with some research-based truths about how financial markets work.

For each of the rash, fear-induced common thoughts below (in bold), we have countered with a dose of realism:

“It’s been a good run, but it’s time to get out.”
From 1926 to 1997, the worst market outcome at any one year was pretty scary, -43.3%; but consider how time changes the equation—the worst return of any 25-year period was 5.9% annualized. Take it from the Rolling Stones: “Time is on my side, yes it is.”

“I can’t just stand here!”
In his book, What Investors Really Want, behavioral economist Meir Statman cites research from Sweden showing that the heaviest traders lose 4% of their account value each year. Across 19 major stock exchanges, investors who made frequent changes trailed buy-and-hold investors by 1.5% a year. Your New Year’s resolution may be to be more active in 2016, but that shouldn’t apply to the market.

“If I time this just right…”
As Ben Carlson relates in A Wealth of Common Sense, “A study performed by the Federal Reserve…looked at mutual fund inflows and outflows over nearly 30 years from 1984 to 2012. Predictably, they found that most investors poured money into the markets after large gains and pulled money out after sustaining losses—a buy high, sell low debacle of a strategy.” Everyone knows to buy low and sell high, but very few put it into practice. Will you?

“I don’t want to bother my advisor.”
Vanguard’s Advisor’s Alpha study did an excellent job of quantifying the value added (in basis points) of many of the common activities performed by an advisor, and the results may surprise you. They found that the greatest value provided by an advisor was behavioral coaching, which added 150 bps per year, far greater than any other activity. At times like this is why investors have advisors so don’t be afraid to call them for advice and support.

“THIS IS THE END OF THE WORLD!”
Since 1928, the U.S. economy has been in recession about 20% of the time and has still managed to compound wealth at a dramatic clip. What’s more, we have never gone more than ten years at any time without at least one recession. Now, we are not currently in a recession, but you could expect between 10 and 15 in your lifetime. The sooner you can reconcile yourself to the inevitability of volatility, the faster you will be able to take advantage of all the good that markets do.

Brinker Capital understands that investing for the long-term can be daunting, especially during a time like this, but we are focused on providing investment solutions, like the Personal Benchmark program, that help investors manage the emotions of investing to achieve their unique financial goals.

For more of what not to do during times of market volatility, click here.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast – Crisis in High-Yield Markets?

miller_podcast_graphicBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded December 11, 2015), we look at Third Avenue’s high-yield fund collapse and its potential impact on the market as a whole. This week we lead with what we don’t like:

What we don’t like: Investor fear has risen with the closure of the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund; belief now that there are wider problems in the high-yield markets; issues and pressure stem from the energy sector as oil prices have fallen a lot; larger fear that this will spread to the economy as a whole; investors will be looking across all sectors for potential problems

What we like: We tend to believe this is more contained and hopeful that there will be better opportunities in the high-yield space in the near future;

What we’re doing about it: Continue to maintain within high-yield while keeping an eye on investor sentiment

Click here to listen to the audio recording

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Monthly Market And Economic Outlook: November 2015

Amy MagnottaAmy Magnotta, CFASenior Investment Manager, Brinker Capital

The market correction in the third quarter, prompted by the Federal Reserve’s decision to stay on hold and worries over China, resulted in investor sentiment reaching levels of extreme pessimism. Risk appetites returned in October and global equity markets rebounded sharply. The start to earnings season was also better than expected. With a gain of +8.4%, the S&P 500 Index posted its third-highest monthly return since 2010, bringing the index back into positive territory for the year. Fixed income markets were relatively flat, but high yield and emerging market debt experienced a rebound in the risk-on environment. Year to date through October, the S&P 500 Index leads both international equity and fixed income markets, a headwind for diversified portfolios.

Within the U.S. equity market sector leadership shifted again but all sectors were in positive territory. The energy and materials sectors, which have weighed significantly on index returns this year, both experienced double-digit gains for the month as crude oil prices stabilized. The more defensive consumer staples and utilities sectors underperformed. Large caps outpaced small and mid-caps, and the margin of outperformance for growth over value continued to widen.

International developed equity markets kept pace with U.S. equity markets in October despite a slight strengthening in the U.S. dollar. Performance in Japan and Europe was boosted on expectations of additional monetary easing. Emerging markets were only slightly behind developed markets, helped by supportive monetary and fiscal policies in China and stabilizing commodity prices. All regions were positive but performance was mixed, with Indonesia gaining more than +15% while India gained less than +2%.

U.S. Treasury yields moved slightly higher during October, and they have continued their move upward as we have entered November. Investment-grade fixed income was flat for the quarter and has provided modest gains so far this year. Municipal bonds outperformed taxable bonds. After peaking at a level of 650 basis points in the beginning of the month, the increase in risk appetite helped high yield spreads tighten more than 100 basis points and the asset class gained more than 2%. Spreads still remain wide relative to fundamentals.

Our outlook remains biased in favor of the positives, but recognizing risks remain. The global macro backdrop keeps us positive on risk assets over the intermediate-term, even as we move through the second half of the business cycle. A number of factors should support the economy and markets over the intermediate term.

  • Global monetary policy accommodation: Despite the Federal Reserve heading toward monetary policy normalization, their approach will be patient and data dependent. The ECB and the Bank of Japan have both executed bold easing measures in an attempt to support their economies. Emerging economies have room to ease.
  • U.S. growth stable and inflation tame: U.S. GDP growth, while muted, remains positive. Employment growth is solid as the unemployment rate fell to 5%. Wage growth has been tepid at best despite the tightening labor market, and reported inflation measures and inflation expectations remain below the Fed’s target.
  • U.S. companies remain in decent shape: M&A deal activity continues to pick up as companies seek growth. Earnings growth outside of the energy sector is positive, but margins, while resilient, have likely peaked for the cycle.
  • Washington: Policy uncertainty is low and all parties in Washington were able to agree on a budget deal and also raised the debt ceiling to reduce near-term uncertainty. With the new budget fiscal policy is poised to become modestly accommodative, helping offset more restrictive monetary policy.

However, risks facing the economy and markets remain, including:

  • Fed tightening: After delaying in September, expectations are for the Fed to raise the fed funds rate December. The subsequent path of rates is uncertain and may not be in line with market expectations, which could lead to increased volatility.
  • Slower global growth: Economic growth outside the U.S. is decidedly weaker. It remains to be seen whether central bank policies can spur sustainable growth in Europe and Japan. A significant slowdown in China is a concern, along with slower growth in other emerging economics like Brazil.
  • Geopolitical risks could cause short-term volatility.

While the equity market drop was concerning, we viewed the move as more of a correction than the start of a bear market. The worst equity market declines are associated with recessions, which are preceded by substantial central bank tightening or accelerating inflation. As described above, we don’t see these conditions being met yet today. The trend of the macro data in the U.S. is still positive, and a significant slowdown in China, which will certainly weigh on global growth, is not likely enough to tip the U.S. economy into contraction. Even as the Fed begins tightening monetary policy later this year, the pace will be measured as inflation is still below target. While we expect a higher level of volatility as the market digests the Fed’s actions and we move through the second half of the business cycle, we remain positive on risk assets over the intermediate term. Increased volatility creates opportunities that we can take advantage of as active managers.

Source: Brinker Capital. Views expressed are for informational purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Not all asset classes referenced in this material may be represented in your portfolio. All investments involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate and credit risk. Foreign securities involve additional risks, including foreign currency changes, political risks, foreign taxes, and different methods of accounting and financial reporting. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Debt and Skepticism: A Millennial Mindset

Dan WilliamsDan Williams, CFPInvestment Analyst

Having overshot 30 by a couple of years, I have had to come to terms with the many changes that come with my new age group. Some good, such as lower car insurance rates. Some bad, such as feeling that 9:00pm is closer to the departure time rather than arrival time for a social gathering. Some are mixed; being called “sir” with a high consistency and no tone of irony. I am also no longer considered to be part of the “young adult” group that is said to represent the emerging consumers in the economy and, subsequently, more closely studied by market researchers. These new kids on the block, known as the Millennials, had the financial crisis occur just as many were entering college and the workforce and were beginning to make their first big life decisions. Not surprisingly, they now think about money differently than I did at their age, just a brief decade ago. So what is the current financial mindset of this group some seven years later?

Goldman Sachs reported, in a June 2015 study, as shown below, that this group upon receiving a windfall of cash would look to pay down debt more than any other option by a wide margin.

Williams_chart1

Goldman Sachs Research Proprietary Survey

The result is not entirely unsurprising given that a majority of college students graduate with debt and, often, this debt is of a daunting amount. However, the magnitude of this victory reflects an overall conservative outlook on how to manage their financial matters.

The second finding, shown below, is of greater concern as it shows Millennials to be very skeptical of investing in the stock market. When asked whether investing in the stock market was a good idea for them, less than 20% answered that the stock market is the best way to save for the future. Approximately twice this amount claimed ignorance, fear of volatility, or lack of perceived fairness as reasons to avoid the stock market. Clearly, the events of the financial crisis have left scars on this group that have yet to heal.

Williams_chart2

Goldman Sachs Research Proprietary Survey

I am left feeling very conflicted for this group’s future financial health. On one hand, it’s very admirable that, unlike some prior young adult groups, this group has realized early on that debt is not something you simply attempt to defer payment of indefinitely. At least in the case of high interest credit card debt, it is hard to find fault with the pay-down-the-debt option as a sound financial decision. However, an inflexible focus on debt repayment combined with shunning or deferring of investing in the equity markets represents a significant challenge to this group’s ability to save meaningfully for the future.

Quite simply, equity investing has been proven to be one of the best ways to grow purchasing power over time. One advantage the Millennials have is ample time to invest, ride out periods of market volatility and let returns compound. To forego any portion of this advantage has potential to be tragic for future savings. Consider a one-year delay in retirement investing at the start of a career The missed opportunity is more than just the amount of one year’s contribution; rather that one year’s contribution compounded with typically 40+ years of returns until retirement. Over 40 years, a single $5,000 investment compounded at 8% becomes over $100,000. Six consecutive years of $5,000 contributions compounds to over $500,000. This is the potential cost of delaying investing just for “a couple of years.” In other words, earlier contributions are invested longer and can compound to greater amounts. On a per-dollar basis, these are the most impactful retirement contributions.

Contribution at start of year Value of contribution at end of year 40, assuming 8% return per year
Year 1 $5,000 $108,622.61
Year 2 $5,000 $100,576.49
Year 3 $5,000 $93,126.38
Year 4 $5,000 $86,228.13
Year 5 $5,000 $79,840.86
Year 6 $5,000 $73,926.72
Total $542,321.72

Source: Brinker Capital

Albert Einstein said, “Compounding interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.” More attention is given by advisors to older clients with more assets and fewer years until retirement. Often this is due to the fact that clients become more tuned into investing matters as they begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel (whether it be the light of retirement or the oncoming train of insufficient savings). However, the greater opportunity for advisors to help a client’s future financial situation occurs earlier on in a client’s investment life. Helping young clients start off with good financial decision making, such as early investing, and letting these good decisions compound, is likely one of the best ways he or she can add value. Each client situation is different as each client has different goals. However a secure retirement is likely a very common dream and as Langston Hughes wrote, “A dream deferred is a dream denied.” Anything that we can do to ensure those dreams are not deferred is truly good work.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change. Brinker Capital, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.

Investment Insights Podcast – September 18, 2015

miller_podcast_graphicBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded September 18, 2015):

What we like: Janet Yellen announced no hike to interest rates; investors had been tracking her policy decision for weeks, making it a distraction, but now some of that stress is alleviated; Yellen was decisive and clear that they wouldn’t raise rates near-term and when they do, there will be fair warning; investors can now focus on the global economy as opposed to that and Fed policy

What we don’t like: As we shift focus to the economy, economic data is currently mixed; employment, housing, and auto are good, manufacturing and production not as much; China, Europe, and Japan have patchwork economic data as well–some good, some bad.

What we’re doing about it: Focusing on growth for investors; watching for earnings reports in early October; leaning more bullish

Click here to listen to the audio recording

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.