Thinking About Inflation and Rob Base (Effect)
“It takes two to make a thing go right, it takes two to make it outta sight.” Some of us will remember dancing to “It Takes Two,” the massive ‘80s hit by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock. And we are taking a stroll down…
What’s More Concerning Than Too Much Inflation?
Investors are rightly concerned about the recent level and persistency of inflation, which, depending on what metric one uses to measure it, is running at 4% to 5% year over year, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term inflation target of 2%+ (to be fair to…
Something to Celebrate
We hope you all had a fun and safe 4th of July! And while not wanting to take away from the celebration of our nation’s birthday, we think now is a great time to celebrate a remarkable second quarter for the markets. Consider that during…
Inflation Expectations Are Up Greatly, But Aren’t So Great
There are lots of ways to think about and measure inflation. We come back to inflation again this week as we continue to believe inflation – and its potential impact on monetary policy – remain the greatest points of concern for investors today. Among the…
Who Let The Hawks Out?
Maybe the only thing catchier than the 2000 dance hit “Who let the dogs out?” from the Baha Men was the parody of the song that same year, “Who let the Mets out?” Yup, for those of you who weren’t in NYC at the time…
Another Sip Of JOLT(S)
“All the sugar, and twice the caffeine.” Those of us of a certain age will recognize immediately the iconic tagline of JOLT Cola. And while we haven’t had a can of JOLT Cola in years (fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on how one feels about highly…
The U.S.A. Is Atypical
The recovery of the U.S. economy from its coronavirus-driven downturn has been, we think, remarkable. Consider that the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 14.8% to 5.8%; weekly jobless claims have fallen from a peak of 6.1 million to 385,000; and total employment…
Doing More with Less, a Lot More
For as big, complex, and dynamic as the U.S. economy is, the formula for measuring and understanding its growth is straightforward: Economic growth is driven by growth in the size of the workforce and/or growth in productivity of that workforce (output per hour worked). While…
Are We Talking About, Talking About Tapering?
We think one of the more iconic phrases ever spoken by a central banker is “We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates,” by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at a June 2020 Fed press conference. As we sit here nearly a year later,…
Getting Back to Zero – Well, Sort of
One of the more fascinating financial developments of the post Great Recession period was the advent of negative yielding bonds. This is a condition present when the premium paid for a bond is so great relative to its par value, it exceeds any income the…