So Far, September Is Living Up To Its Reputation
We are about halfway through what has historically been the roughest month of the year for the stock market, and so far, September is living up to its reputation with the S&P 500 off about 1.4% month to date, more than two times the average…
If The Fed Steps Back, Do Yields Step Up?
We think three questions are top of mind among investors when it comes to the Federal Reserve’s securities purchase program (for more than a year, the Fed has been buying $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month with an eye…
Productivity, Profits, and Pay
Despite the Delta variant of the coronavirus, supply chain bottlenecks, a spike in input prices, and a meaningful employer/employee mismatch (there are more job openings than there are job seekers), the US economy continues to power ahead. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)…
The US Debt Downgrade 10 Years On
There has been much written in the financial press the past few weeks about the just-passed 50th anniversary of President Richard Nixon taking the US off the gold standard. While that was for certain a momentous event in the financial history of our country, it…
Friday The 13th Comes and Goes
With Friday the 13th just having come and gone, now seems an appropriate time to take stock of those issues that worry many investors. First, there is the Delta variant of COVID-19, and the worry it will lead to the US economy being locked down….
The Month Of May Gets A Bad Rap
One of the more interesting and entertaining aspects of investing is the myriad of adages which, as you would expect with adages, express a general truth about the markets. Consider, “Don’t Fight the Fed” – when the Fed wants to support or restrain risk assets,…
Growth vs Value – Are We Setting Up For A Photo Finish?
A few questions have dominated our client conversations in 2021: Will inflation prove transitory or persistent? How might changes to the tax code impact the markets? When will the Fed taper and tighten? What investment style wins out this year: growth or value? And that…
The National Bureau of Economic Research Makes it Official
While we have known for some time that the US economy had well moved on from the pandemic-driven recession of early 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (the NBER, the official arbiter of our nation’s business cycle) made it official last week declaring the…
Price -Usually- Cures Price
Among the bits of wisdom I first received as a young analyst was from a commodities trader who told me, “Price cures price.” Meaning when the price of a commodity had plunged, producers would likely curtail production of that commodity as it was no longer…
Laverne & Shirley; Jordan & Pippen; Earnings & Interest Rates
History is full of great duos, both fictional – Cagney & Lacey, Holmes & Watson – and real – Venus & Serena, Sonny & Cher. When it comes to investing, we have our own great duo, a pairing that more than any other determines the…