There’s no place like home
Most of us have been spending an extraordinary amount of time at home, and if we are lucky – as I am – we have been healthy, employed, and surrounded by loved ones. There really is no place like home, which brings us to the…
Don’t fight the Fed. And, maybe the Federal Government too
Among the better-known Wall Street maxims is “Don’t fight the Fed,” which speaks to the idea that monetary policy and the trend in interest rates determines the direction of the stock market. Or, more specifically, when the Fed is lowering, or keeping interest rates low,…
Two bits of good news. And, what are two bits, anyway?
The economic headlines of late have been driven by – and understandably so – BIG pieces of news, both bad and good. There was Q1 GDP contracting by 5% and an April unemployment rate of 14.7%. Conversely, there was the unprecedented policy response to the…
What small caps might be telling us about the economy and the market
For a big country, we sure have an affinity for little things. Think TV shows: “Tiny House Nation”; sayings: “Big things come in small packages”; and children’s books: “The Little Engine That Could” as being among the more obvious examples of our love of things…
What history will COVID-19 write?
The COVID-19 pandemic has made history in more ways than one, including catalyzing an economic downturn that cost the US more than 20 million jobs and a policy response that saw the Federal Government pass the $2.1 trillion CARES Act, the largest ever US economic…
The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news….
How the Federal Reserve is like Spike from Happy Days
As a child of the 70s, I have come to embrace a few, eternal truths: disco should have never died; big collars were a good idea, and the Fonz was the coolest guy who ever lived. Speaking of the Fonz, I am reminded of a…
It’s always darkest before the dawn
It is one thing to understand we are living through an unprecedented, pandemic driven economic downturn, and all together another to learn the US unemployment rate is 14.7% and that 20.5 million of our fellow Americans lost their jobs in April. The numbers are shocking,…
Pick a letter, any letter
We got our first look at Q1 Gross Domestic Product last week, and as expected, it wasn’t pretty. While the Q1 GDP number is subject to revision, it showed the economy contracted (4.8%) Q to Q. If one considers that the coronavirus didn’t hit the…
How can oil be worth less than nothing?
They say if you live long enough you really do see everything. Well, last week investors saw something they had never seen before – the price of a barrel of oil going for negative $37, at least based on the May 2020 futures contract on…