It feels like Groundhog Day… Bill Murray, trade, tariffs, and the markets
In the film Groundhog Day, Bill Murray plays TV weatherman Phil Connors who, against his wishes, is sent to report on the annual Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and, while there, relives Groundhog Day again, and again and again with an eye toward his…
Bizarro bonds – guaranteed to lose you money, and not just in a comic strip
Fans of Superman – or Seinfeld – may be familiar with Bizarro World, a cubed planet far out in space that is inhabited by imperfect duplicates of Superman, Lois Lane, and their friends. In a nutshell, on Bizarro – relative to earth – up is…
What did the Fed just do? Why? What comes next?
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee, the monetary policymaking body of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), met and announced it was lowering the Federal Funds rate by 25 bps (the first interest rate cut in more than 10 years) to a range of 2.0%…
“And it’s too late, baby now, it’s too late” (Or is it?)
Carole King may have been lamenting the inevitable end of a long-lived relationship in her classic ballad “It’s too late,” but for worried investors she could have easily been singing about how US monetary and trade policy have conspired to bring an end to the…
Why we’re not worried about the deficit and debt!
It’s coincidental Ross Perot passed away at a time when many members of our political and economic classes are increasingly concerned about our nation’s deficit and debt, and how both could be meaningful headwinds for the economy and risk assets going forward. While not dismissive…
Our great economic expansion isn’t dead yet!
The great American writer and humorist Mark Twain was author of many famous sayings, most notably “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” We think that most famous of Mark Twain sayings applies nicely to our ongoing – and now record – US economic…
Fortunately, there’s no rule about not talking about “The Rule of 20”
Coming into 2019, Brinker Capital believed if we could solve for monetary policy risk and trade policy risk that the economy and the markets would be biased higher. Well, we received more good news than bad on both fronts lately, and risk assets and the…
Why we’re not concerned China will “go nuclear” on US debt
As US/China relations remain troubled, we are increasingly asked if China might seek to punish the US by liquidating its portfolio of US Treasuries, a course of action often referred to as the “Nuclear Option.” Given that China is the largest foreign holder of US…
A tale of two yield curves
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the…
Ferris was right: Life – and the market – move pretty fast
We think Ferris’ words of wisdom apply equally as well to the stock market and would cite near-term and long-term return streams as proof positive of that point. To back up a bit, May was a month to forget for risk assets, as the S&P…