Nearly 57 years to the day of their first public performance at London’s Marquee Club, the Rolling Stones wrapped up the USA leg of their very successful and critically acclaimed No Filter Tour. Incredibly, time, even after all these years, still seems to be on their side. Fortunately for investors, it’s on our side too.
At Brinker Capital, we talk about the importance of taking a long-term view when it comes to investing, and we do so not because of some interest in parroting a well worn Wall Street adage, but because history tells us that – at least here at home – the stock market tends to rise much more than it falls and the economy tends to expand much more than it contracts. To put a finer point on that statement, consider that over the past 40 years the US economy has been in recession just 10% of the time and the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) has finished higher for the year 33 times. Overtime risk assets and the economy are biased higher and that bias should leave all of us predisposed to a much more optimistic view of the world.
To put a final, even finer point on the long-term performance of US equities and the inclination for the US market to rise over time, consider that over the past 90 years – a period that includes both the Great Depression and the Great Recession – the S&P 500 produced a positive return during every recorded 15-, 20-, and 30-year timespan and produced a negative return less than 4% of the time during any recorded 10-year timespan.
The positive long-term trend for the economy and risk assets is worth keeping in mind, particularly as we try to navigate and make sense of the ongoing US/China trade dust-up, our current domestic political discourse, and the upcoming Presidential election.
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only.
Tagged: market perspectives, Tim Holland, S&P 500, Great Recession, risk assets