Omicron & The Fed Upend The Markets
After a week away for the Thanksgiving holiday, we are happy to be taking pen to paper to share our thoughts on the economy and markets. While our Thanksgiving was great–and we hope yours was too–the post-Thanksgiving period has been anything but for investors. The…
The Consumer Price Index Jumps 6.2%….Now What?
We pivot again to inflation this week. The catalyst for taking pen to paper this time on the topic is the 6.2% year-on-year jump in the October Consumer Price Index, a data point that was released by the Labor Department on November 10th. October saw…
One IMF Saves the World, the Other Upgrades the World (Economy)
The 7th installment of the Mission Impossible movie franchise starring Tom Cruise should hit theaters this November, twenty-five years after the premiere of the first film (which featured the great Anthony Hopkins and the great line, “Mr. Hunt, this isn’t mission difficult, it’s mission impossible….
“When People Stop Being Polite, and Start Getting Real”
As if I wasn’t feeling old enough already with my 30-year college reunion on the horizon (COVID-19 permitting) the folks at Paramount+ go and reboot the original “Real World” as “Real World Homecoming: New York.” The original launched 29 years ago, and introduced many of…
Don’t fight the Fed. And, maybe the Federal Government too
Among the better-known Wall Street maxims is “Don’t fight the Fed,” which speaks to the idea that monetary policy and the trend in interest rates determines the direction of the stock market. Or, more specifically, when the Fed is lowering, or keeping interest rates low,…
Getting back to even
US equities have rallied sharply the past few weeks, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) now 27% above its March 23 intra-day low of 2,189. We believe the March 23 low will— in hindsight—prove to be the low for this market cycle. What we…
The effect of COVID-19 on the markets
As we learned during the Great Recession and, before that, the Tech Bubble, the worst thing to do in times of crisis and heightened market volatility is to panic and cash out. Investors should stay focused on time-horizons and make sure near-term cash needs are…
Halloween is coming and the market is getting spooky (again)
How fitting. It’s October and just like Michael Myers in the Halloween movie, market volatility has returned to give us all a fright, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) off nearly 4% at one point for the month. We see recent volatility, beginning with…
It’s not politics that matter; it’s policy and fundamentals
We are increasingly asked how politics might impact the economy and the market, a reasonable question given growing talk of impeachment and the coming 2020 election. And while we seem to be entering – or reentering – a period of greater political uncertainty, we see…
A good rule of thumb for valuing the market
Coming into 2019, Brinker Capital believed if we could solve for monetary policy risk and trade policy risk that the economy and markets would be biased higher. Well, so far, we’ve received more good news than bad on both fronts, and risk assets and the…