The (presumed) policy implications of 11/3/2020
While we won’t know for sure which party will control the US Senate through 2022 until Georgia decides both of its US Senate elections via a January 5, 2021 runoff, we are comfortable assuming the United States will face a divided government the next two…
For the market, an unpleasant, but not unexpected, September and October
We just closed the books on a tough two months for the market, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) off 3.8% in September and off 2.8% in October. If we consider a very strong July and August for equities, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the…
Something worth paying attention to other than the election
What – other than the election – should be commanding investor attention these days? Our vote would be the bond market. To help put politics and the bond market in the same neat little box, we turn to renowned political consultant James Carville, who in…
When it comes to the election, what is the market “pricing in?”
Investors pay attention to the stock market not just because they are investing in it, but because they consider the market one of – if not the most – accurate of all leading indicators. Said differently, the market, in its infinite wisdom, will lead the…
Have we seen this movie before?
Before we dive into the weekly wire there are two BIG disclaimers we need to address. First, we are not determining which political party bears responsibility for the state of fiscal stimulus negotiations. Second, I am a horrible negotiator—be it trying to work out a…
An unsettled world becomes more so
An unsettled world – a pandemic, a contentious election, a strained political and cultural discourse, unrest in our streets – has become more so with news President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19. We wish them a very speedy recovery and…
The election, the markets, and the economy: you’ve got questions, we’ve got answers
While (we hope) the Weekly Wire is timely, relevant, and entertaining, it also tends to be both a bit backwards looking—focused on analyzing and understanding a market or economic event that has happened—with the week’s narrative starting and ending on that particular page. Well, in…
It’s the final countdown…to the election
As the 2020 Presidential election draws near, our attention instinctively turns to Europe – the Swedish pop-metal band, not the continent – and their mid-80s chart-topper, The Final Countdown. Now that summer is over, the final countdown to election day has begun. In this spirit,…
Show me the money
You can count us among the world’s cinephiles, with a particular and deep appreciation for the cinematic work of the late, great Burt Reynolds. When it comes to remarkable movies, they all seem to have a few things going for them, including a first-rate cast,…
The bear market goes on…until it doesn’t
When trying to put in perspective the shortest bear market in US history—at least a bear market that saw the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) sell off 30%+—there are any number of directions one can go. However, I decided to go with the children’s book…