The market as a leading indicator…for the market
We frequently write about the stock market as a leading indicator of the real economy. The idea being the market will anticipate the economic environment to come, rallying in the face of awful economic news and selling off in the face of constructive economic news….
Getting back to even
US equities have rallied sharply the past few weeks, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) now 27% above its March 23 intra-day low of 2,189. We believe the March 23 low will— in hindsight—prove to be the low for this market cycle. What we…
Markets are often volatile to the upside!
Think about what we’ve come to grips with over the past few weeks: the US economy faces an unprecedented, pandemic driven demand shock; the US Federal Reserve is engaged in a level of monetary policy support and liquidity creation unlike anything in its history; the…
What might H.E.L.P. now
Clearly, the markets could use some help right now, and fortunately, we do think help is on its way. Until then, if we want an easy way to recall what we see as four meaningful pillars of support for the markets going forward, we simply…
A 30 year perspective, and a bit more perspective on the 30-year mortgage
Adopting a long-term view on investing and the markets is needed most when it is difficult to do—like right now, when stocks are extremely volatile and under pressure as investors try to determine how COVID-19 and this year’s election will ultimately impact corporate and consumer…
One thing we shouldn’t be stressed about
Last week was an exceptionally difficult week for risk assets, emphasized by Thursday’s record 1,192 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average – a selloff sparked by growing concern that the Coronavirus could prove to carry a greater weight on global growth than originally…
As goes January, so goes the year. Not so fast.
The stock market is a fascinating place. It’s where capital meets ideas and risk says hello to reward. It’s also where millions of investors decide the value of thousands of publicly traded companies, and in so doing not only set the price for individual securities…
The Super Bowl – We’re fans! The Super Bowl Indicator – Not so much
On Sunday, February 2, 100 million Americans watched Patrick Mahomes lead the Kansas City Chiefs to a stunning fourth-quarter comeback victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, earning MVP honors for himself and delivering the franchise’s first world championship in 50 years….
The Coronavirus: History may not repeat, but it does rhyme
By their nature, exogenous shocks are impossible to model for – we simply don’t know when to expect the unexpected. As exogenous shocks occur, investors will understandably seek to discern their ultimate impact on the economy and the stock market. Looking back through history its…