A tale of two yield curves
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the…
Ferris was right: Life – and the market – move pretty fast
We think Ferris’ words of wisdom apply equally as well to the stock market and would cite near-term and long-term return streams as proof positive of that point. To back up a bit, May was a month to forget for risk assets, as the S&P…
Misery – a scary movie, but a not so scary index (at least as of today)
Kathy Bates justifiably won the Best Actress Oscar for her portrayal of former nurse Annie Wilkes in the 1990 psychological horror film Misery, based on Stephen King’s 1987 novel of the same name. If you haven’t seen the movie, our advice is DON’T! It –…
Maybe GDPNow can give us all a bit of serenity now
Stocks are correcting, the yield curve is inverting, and US/China relations are deteriorating. If there was ever a time we could all use a bit of ‘serenity now’, well, it might be now. In all seriousness, it has been a very bumpy month. Since the…
Why we’re not concerned China will “go nuclear” on US debt
As US/China relations take a turn for the worse, we are increasingly asked if China might seek to punish the US by liquidating its portfolio of US Treasuries, a course of action often referred to as “The Nuclear Option.” Given that China is the largest…
Baby boom – Great for economic growth, but there isn’t one in sight
At a high level, two factors drive economic growth: 1. growth in a labor force (e.g. more people working this year versus last year) 2. growth in productivity (e.g. people producing more this year versus last year). So, the basic formula for growing an economy…
A lot can happen in two weeks
A lot can happen in two weeks – and you don’t have to be a fan of the great romantic comedy Two Weeks Notice to know that – just take a look at the economy and markets. (I do believe Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant are both…
The bond market is behaving – and that’s good news for stocks and the economy
Ask most folks the question, “How is the market doing?” and they will likely quote the day’s closing price for the S&P 500 Index or provide the year-to-date return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That’s understandable, given we often gauge near-term prosperity and economic…
A good rule of thumb for valuing the market
Coming into 2019, Brinker Capital believed if we could solve for monetary policy risk and trade policy risk that the economy and markets would be biased higher. Well, so far, we’ve received more good news than bad on both fronts, and risk assets and the…
Battle of the market stars – Lou Ferrigno is earnings, ABC is stocks
Before there was reality TV there was, well, a lot of things including Battle of the Network Stars, which in a way was reality TV. Hosted by Howard Cosell and broadcast annually during the late ‘70s and early ‘80s, the show featured celebrities from the…